As we have done in the past, below are the keys and my prediction for the Pittsburgh Steelers to win (or lose) today’s game. Three things that need to happen for them to finish on the right side of the score and vice versa in their Week 3 home opener against the Los Angeles Chargers.

My Steelers prediction is at the bottom.

The Steelers will win if…

1. Pat Freiermuth goes wild on the seam

After two quiet weeks with a passing attack that focused more on the sideline than the hash, Freiermuth could be in line for a big game. The Chargers’ defensive structure and lack of a high-end free safety make the middle a friendlier place to target. At some point, Pittsburgh is going to have to test it. While George Pickens has shown himself to be matchup-proof, other guys have to step in.

2. Broderick Jones bounces back

No matter how much bad mojo there is around Broderick Jones, there’s no time to dwell on it. He’s the starting right tackle for today and the foreseeable future after rookie Troy Fautanu went on the injured list with a knee injury. The talent is there for Jones. And he’s shown he can play well. There’s a tough matchup against Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack, but a statement game from Jones will ease the pain of Fautanu getting hurt and remind everyone not to throw in the towel for Jones.

3. Justin Herbert becomes an easy target

While Herbert will likely play, his effectiveness is a fair question. Is this a Kirk Cousins ​​situation of a quarterback who can’t move and an offense that needs to change its personality, use more pistol and shotgun (to be fair, the Chargers already used a pistol) to alleviate Herbert’s high ankle sprain?

Can he move the pocket and run away from TJ Watt and company? The last time the Steelers faced Herbert, his legs were an X-Factor. That may not be the case when he’s standing on one leg.

The Steelers will lose if…

1. JK Dobbins Burns Pittsburgh Again

Dobbins is a tough nut for Pittsburgh to crack. While injuries have kept him from playing much against the Steelers, he has averaged nearly seven yards per carry in the two games against them. That includes a 15-carry, 120-yard, one-touchdown game against the team in 2022.

Pittsburgh’s run defense and front seven are stout and tough, but Dobbins is one crack away from being a big run starter. And he’s a red-hot runner, rushing for 130-plus yards in each of his two weeks this season.

2. O-Line can’t do stunts

No offensive game plan wants to be on third-and-long. But you certainly don’t want to be doing it against the Chargers. Then Bosa and Mack can prick up their ears and go to work. And the scheme gets more chaotic, by putting three linemen on one side and pulling twists and stunts out of that. Pittsburgh benefits from playing at home, but that only makes the task a little easier. The Chargers could test the ever-changing Steelers’ front five. Justin Fields can’t run away from everyone.

3. Chargers offense shows ample depth

Pittsburgh does a good job of taking away your fastball. Your best skill guys. Atlanta’s Kyle Pitts and Drake London and Denver’s Courtland Sutton, all with muted impact. One touchdown from Pitts was all those guys got. Where the Steelers run into trouble is against teams that have depth and can win with their third/fourth options.

The Chargers aren’t an incredibly deep team at the skill positions, but they do have a good scheme. A guy like Ladd McConkey could be a problem in the slot, something the Steelers haven’t had to deal with the first two weeks of the year. Rookie CB Beanie Bishop Jr. hasn’t really been tested yet. That could change this week.

Prediction

Chargers: 20
Steelers: 14

Steelers Season Prediction Record

2-0