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Potential Gulf Hurricane Could See Dangerous Intensification

Vaseline September 24, 2024

The tropical system in the western Caribbean may not look like much yet, but don’t be fooled. History has shown that the Gulf of Mexico can be a pressure cooker, turning systems like this from mere wind storms into devastating monster storms in no time at all, given the right conditions.

In this case, the convection oven is already on, as the water in the Gulf is warmer than normal and is expected to increase the storm’s wind speeds by as much as 75 mph (120 km/h) by Thursday morning.

That means the hurricane is likely to become Hurricane Helene on Wednesday, with winds strengthening to a Category 3 hurricane with speeds of 115 mph (185 kph) or more as it approaches Big Bend, Florida, on Thursday, according to forecasts from the National Hurricane Center.

The storm is expected to intensify in the Gulf with potentially explosive force. It’s called rapid intensification, and it’s happened before. In fact, most of the worst hurricanes in history have experienced rapid intensification, National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said in interviews with USA TODAY.

These include two recent hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico: Hurricane Michael, which struck near Mexico Beach in the Florida Panhandle in 2022, and Hurricane Ian, which struck the southwest coast of Florida in 2018.

The Gulf storm’s fierce official forecast is still below the surge that some computer models predict. Hurricane experts say the higher forecasts for peak winds and low pressure could become reality if the storm develops a classic tropical cyclone structure before it reaches the southern Gulf of Mexico.

While forecasting rapid transitions in storms has improved, accurately predicting such radical events is still considered “the Wild West,” said David Roth, a meteorologist with the Weather Prediction Center.

What is rapid intensification?

A period of rapid increase in wind speeds in a storm. The technical definition is an increase of at least 35 mph in a 24-hour period, but storms can become stronger or intensify over a longer period under the right conditions.

Rapid intensification usually occurs when a storm moves into or over warm water. Abundant moisture and warmer water provide energy that helps hurricanes build the tall cloud pillars that give them extra power.

According to Brian McNoldy, a senior research scientist at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School, water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are higher than ever for this time of year.

Wind shear is expected to decrease as the storm moves toward the Gulf of Mexico, reducing the chance of high cloud tops being torn apart by headwinds.

In June, Beryl took advantage of the warm waters of the eastern Caribbean and became a Category 4 hurricane with winds of 130 mph. Its winds had increased by 95 mph in just 42.5 hours, beating all but a few previous hurricanes.

Why is rapid intensification so dangerous?

Higher winds that develop during rapid intensification have a double impact on storms, making it harder to plan and enforce evacuations. During past storms, people at risk went to bed expecting a lower intensity hurricane and woke up in the morning to find something completely different.

Hurricane Otis reached 110 mph (177 km/h) in 24 hours in the eastern Pacific Ocean last summer, shocking residents of Acapulco, Mexico.

The stronger winds and lower pressure are more devastating in their own right, but stronger winds also push more water up in a storm surge, especially in the Gulf of Mexico, where the continental shelf typically causes the sea surface to rise as a storm makes landfall.

Florida’s west coast, including Tampa Bay, is particularly vulnerable to storm surges, Jamie Rohme, deputy director of the hurricane center, said Monday.

Which hurricanes have strengthened rapidly?

Of the 10 hurricanes with winds of 150 mph or greater that have made landfall in the contiguous United States in over 100 years, all but one erupted during a period of rapid intensification, in terms of strength and power.

Hurricane Ian experienced two such bursts of rapidly increasing wind speeds in 2022, briefly reaching 155 mph (250 km/h) before making landfall near Cayo Costa in southwest Florida on September 28, 2022.

Hurricane Andrew, the storm that devastated parts of southwestern Miami-Dade County, Florida, in 1992, also intensified rapidly. Andrew intensified from a minor hurricane to winds of 175 mph in just 36 hours, and its central pressure dropped by 72 millibars as the hurricane approached the Bahamas. Winds were still 165 mph when the hurricane made landfall in Miami on August 24.

In 2021, Hurricane Ida exploded in intensity as it approached the Louisiana coast, with winds increasing from 85 mph to 150 mph in 20 hours, making it the fifth strongest hurricane to hit the continental U.S.

Are meteorologists getting better at predicting rapid intensification?

Improvements in data collection through the work of hurricane hunters and the development of technologies such as dropsondes and drones deployed by aircraft have provided more information in the computer models used to make forecasts.

Ten years ago, the National Hurricane Center did not predict that the hurricane would intensify rapidly, but significant progress has been made since then.

“We were quite successful in Idalia,” the center’s director, Michael Brennan, told USA TODAY earlier this year.

But like Roth, Brennan and others say that predicting rapid intensification is still a challenge. Both Beryl and Otis surprised meteorologists with the extent to which they intensified.

Does climate change play a role?

Many scientists say yes.

Tom Knutson, a senior scientist at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, has previously stated that scientists are still uncertain about the overall long-term effects of higher temperatures on tropical cyclones, but that rapid intensification is expected to increase in a warmer climate.

Some scientists say climate change is already evident in the rapid intensification of recent hurricanes.

A new study published in February by researchers at Princeton University concluded that rapid intensification events “are already more dangerous than normal cyclones and that future climate warming will greatly increase the likelihood of[rapid intensification]close to land.”

Dinah Voyles Pulver is a climate change and environment writer for USA TODAY. She has covered hurricanes, tornadoes and severe weather for more than 30 years. Reach her at [email protected] or @dinahvp.