A tropical system is strengthening in the western Caribbean and is expected to strengthen into a major hurricane before hitting Florida or the northern Gulf Coast later this week as the eighth named storm of 2024: Helene.

Stakeholders along the U.S. Gulf Coast, from Louisiana to Florida, should continue to monitor this situation closely, stay informed about weather forecasts in the coming days, and have their hurricane plans ready.

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Warnings and cautions have been issued: Tropical warnings have been issued for parts of the Yucatan Peninsula, the Greater Antilles and Florida.

This means that tropical storms and hurricanes may occur in these areas in the next 36-48 hours.

Where it is now: The storm is located about 120 miles west of Grand Cayman, with winds of 35 mph. Thunderstorms are gradually becoming more organized in this area and are expected to strengthen today.

The storm was designated Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, a procedure NHC uses to issue warnings for the formation of a tropical depression or storm, on Monday morning.

Here’s the timeline:

-​ Tuesday: The storm is expected to approach Cancun, Cozumel and western Cuba and become a storm called Helene, a tropical storm or even a Category 1 hurricane. Locally heavy rains, strong winds and storm surge flooding are possible in those areas. Parts of western Cuba could receive 12 inches or more of rain.

-​ Wednesday: Helene could have some lingering impacts in Cancun, Cozumel, and western Cuba, especially early. We expect Helen to enter the southern Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane. Some high waves and outer rain bands could reach parts of Florida’s Gulf Coast, from the Keys to the Panhandle.

-​ Friday:This system is likely to move inland quickly, bringing persistent strong winds and locally heavy rainfall to parts of the southeast.

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How strong can it get: Helene is forecast to become a major hurricane in the Gulf before making landfall.

That’s because heat content is a favorable ingredient for intensification, and the map below shows that there’s plenty of deep, warm water in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and parts of the Gulf of Mexico. In fact, the Gulf of Mexico’s heat content is at a record high for this time of year, according to University of Miami tropical scientist Brian McNoldy.

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But it’s not just hot water.

According to forecast models, the higher-altitude winds may spread out over Helene, favoring strengthening, rather than shearing and tilting Helene’s circulation.

For these reasons, Helene could reach at least Category 3 intensity in the eastern Gulf of Mexico before making landfall.

Potential US rainfall: While it is too early to provide specific information on other impacts, such as storm surges and wind gusts, we expect Helene to produce generally heavy rainfall along and east of its track.

The heaviest rain is expected from Thursday to Friday in parts of the southeast, but some bands of heavy rain could arrive as early as Wednesday. This rain could cause flash flooding, especially where it is associated with storm surge and on higher ground.

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite subjects. Contact him at X (formerly Twitter), Wires, Facebook And Blue sky.