United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York, Damian Williams
Photo: Alex Kent/Getty Images

The smoke has been hanging around New York City Mayor Eric Adams for months, and now he’s in the fire. We’ve never seen anything like it: a criminal complaint against the former police chief and current mayor of the most important city in the world, filed by the Feds a few blocks away, about to play out in a courtroom with unimaginably high stakes for the city itself and for the man at the center of it all.

Let’s take a look at what we know, and what we don’t know.

The charge: The 57-page indictment charges Adams with federal crimes including conspiracy, wire fraud, soliciting foreign campaign contributions, and bribery. In essence, prosecutors allege that Adams solicited and received two types of improper benefits from powerful Turkish government officials and citizens beginning in 2015: (1) free or deeply discounted luxury travel, which Adams sometimes failed to disclose, and (2) illegal foreign campaign contributions, funneled into Adams’ campaign through phony “straw donors.” In return, Adams allegedly used his official power as mayor of Brooklyn and later as mayor to grant his Turkish benefactors a significant favor. In 2021, as construction was wrapping up on a skyscraper known as “Turkish House,” Turkish officials sought to have the building inspected and approved for opening in late September 2021, in time for a visit by the Turkish president. Adams relied on FDNY officials, who sped up (and sometimes shortened) the safety inspection process, to the satisfaction of his Turkish benefactors.

Even before the U.S. Attorney’s Office held a press conference to outline the charges, Adams made two public statements categorically denying any wrongdoing. He offered no specific defense or counterargument — but of course he is presumed innocent and won’t have to prove anything to anyone if (and when) this case goes to trial.

I know what you’re wondering: How strong is the prosecution’s case? The answer, I tell you, is … we don’t know yet (sorry). The indictment certainly has merit. If you read between the lines, prosecutors have apparently turned over one or more campaign insiders who can describe the inner workings of the alleged scheme. It seems clear that Adams attempted to cover up his receipt of more than $100,000 in free or discounted luxury travel. And the indictment cites damaging text messages in which Adams appears to instruct his campaign staff to find a way to accept donations from Turkish nationals and pressures the FDNY to expedite its inspection of the Turkish House.

But bribery and corruption cases are notoriously difficult for prosecutors. Defendants often claim — as Adams will undoubtedly do here — that if something illegal was going on, he didn’t know about it and was just doing his job to make sure voters’ needs were being met. Sometimes you can read an indictment and say, “Game over.” This is not one of those cases. That’s not to say the charges are weak or problematic, but they’re not a piece of cake.

The prosecutors: This is a federal case, brought by the United States Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York, where I used to work. (Contrary to what you may have seen on social media, this case has nothing to do with Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg or New York State Attorney General Letitia James.) The U.S. Attorney, Damian Williams, is only 44 years old — making him the youngest U.S. District Attorney for SDNY in recent memory, possibly ever. He is also the first Black U.S. District Attorney for SDNY — which could become relevant to the atmosphere as his office prosecutes the second Black mayor of New York City.

Williams doesn’t fit the traditional mold of the U.S. District Attorney of the United States. He’s not a fire-breathing self-promoter (like Rudy Giuliani), and he’s not a natural media draw (like James Comey or Preet Bharara). He’s low-key, independent, and meticulous. Williams began his tenure with a low profile — not necessarily a criticism — but has come into the spotlight in the past year or so with front-page prosecutions of Sam Bankman-Fried, Sen. Robert Menendez, Sean “Diddy” Combs, and now the sitting mayor.

Williams’ name will appear in court documents and he will be the public face of the prosecution, but he will not actually argue the case in court. That will be done by a team of assistant U.S. attorneys, likely from the Public Corruption Unit. That group has a recent history of taking down powerful New York political leaders, including Democratic House Speaker Sheldon Silver and Republican Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos. The SDNY has a long and proud history and considers itself the best of the best (I will confess to believing our own hype), but it is not infallible; both Silver and Skelos had to be retried (and convicted) after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in a separate case in 2016 that vaporized their original convictions.

The defense team: It’s standard practice in these pieces to quote former colleagues of the aforementioned attorney vouching for his integrity and waxing lyrical about his dazzling courtroom skills. Well, prepare for some standard fare from me about Adams’ defense attorneys, Boyd Johnson and Brendan McGuire. Let’s put it this way: As a prosecutor, I wasn’t intimidated by anyone on the defense—but these two are pretty damn impressive, and I’d be nervous about going into court against them. Johnson was the Deputy U.S. Attorney, the second-highest ranking person in the office, and McGuire was head of the (checks notes)… Public Corruption Unit. The SDNY is notoriously elite (just ask us), but these two were among the absolute best I’ve ever had to work with in my eight-plus years there. They both know how to build a case as a prosecutor—and therefore how to dissect a defense case, too.

Adams’ defense team also includes Alex Spiro, a prominent attorney for the rich and powerful. Spiro recently had his criminal case against Alec Baldwin dismissed, and his client list (in both civil and criminal cases) ranges from Jay-Z to New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft. This certainly won’t be an easy task for prosecutors.

What happens next: Adams is expected to appear in federal court within the next few business days. To illustrate how small the world is there, when I used to walk from the World Trade Center site to the SDNY, I walked right past the mayor’s office, which is less than a quarter mile from the courthouse. It will be a surreal scene when Adams — still the city’s sitting mayor — makes his first court appearance and sits down at the defendant’s table.

At his arraignment, Adams will be informed of the charges against him, and he will most certainly enter a “not guilty” plea. Unlike Sean Combs, who was recently held without bail, Adams will almost certainly be released on bail, or possibly without any conditions at all. From there, the case will move through the unglamorous but all-important pretrial stages: discovery (the process by which prosecutors must present their evidence to the defense) and motions (which will undoubtedly include objections by Adams to various searches of his property and to the charges themselves).

The vast majority of federal cases—more than 95 percent, in recent years—result in a guilty plea, so statistically that’s always the most likely outcome. That said, I’d put the likelihood of a plea here at much lower, perhaps below 50-50. Adams is famously confident, shall we say, and he’s gone all out, defiantly asserting that, in this case, “I always knew that if I took a stand before New Yorkers, I would be a target—and a target I was.” It’s unclear exactly who Adams thinks is targeting him, or why. But he vowed to “fight this with every ounce of my strength and spirit.” It doesn’t sound like he’s gunning for a plea, though things could certainly change quickly.

If this case goes to trial, it probably won’t be anytime soon. Normally, it takes at least a year, and probably longer, for a case of this gravity and complexity to go to trial. That said, if Adams remains mayor, the matter will become more urgent and could be resolved more quickly.

The Feds, and especially the SDNY, are used to steamrolling their indicted suspects. Usually the charges are too strong, the evidence too overwhelming, and the resources at the government’s disposal too great. But this is going to be a fierce battle, and it’s a mistake to predict a particular outcome. Adams could win the case and remain mayor, or he could end up in jail. The only thing we know for sure is that he’s not going down without a fight.