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Guardians vs. Tigers 2024 ALDS preview: predictions, pitching matchups and more
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Guardians vs. Tigers 2024 ALDS preview: predictions, pitching matchups and more

The Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers meet in an all-American League Central ALDS, pitting baseball’s best bullpen against the sport’s most popular team. The best-of-five series begins Saturday in Cleveland, with a trip to the ALCS, where the winner of the New York Yankees-Kansas City Royals series will be on the line.


Play times

Game 1: Tigers at Guardians, Saturday, October 5, 1:08 PM ET, TBS/Max

Game 2: Tigers at Guardians, Monday, October 7, 4:08 PM ET, TBS/truTV/Max

Game 3: Guardians at Tigers, Wednesday, October 9, time TBA, TBS/truTV/Max

Game 4: Guardians at Tigers, Thursday, October 10, time TBD, TBS/truTV/Max (if necessary)

Game 5: Tigers at Guardians, Saturday October 12, time to be determined, TBS/Max (if necessary)


Pitching matchups

In the rotation, the Tigers probably have a slight advantage overall. Tarik Skubal does the A big advantage, sure, but once you get into the meat of these two rotations — which could happen in a longer series than the wild-card round — it’s not so clear who has the best starting pitchers.

For Cleveland, behind ace Tanner Bibee (and his elite slider), there are questions. Gavin Williams throws hard and has a great curveball, and he settled down the stretch after perhaps fixing a tip, but also had a few blowouts along the way. Matthew Boyd has struck out many batters, but has failed to pitch into the fifth inning in his past three starts. Ben Lively has been a revelation, but he has a low strikeout rate and his fastball can reach 90 miles per hour. Alex Cobb has a great splitter, but he’s dealing with a blister.

The Tigers have as many possible weaknesses and will in all likelihood be without Skubal for Game 1. Casey Mize’s four-seam combo and splitter has him doing well against lefties, but he’s still looking for the right breaking ball to bring it all together against right-handers. Reese Olson hasn’t had quite the same since returning from injury in mid-September. Keider Montero can be great, but has been inconsistent. Still, with Skubal in hand, the Tigers have a slight advantage, and that’s how the projections see it.

But in the bullpen, the decision goes to the Guardians. They had the best bullpen by any measure in the regular season and can come with fire (Emmanuel Clase’s 100 mph cutter), ice (rookie Cade Smith’s excellent fastball/splitter combo) and funk (Erik Sabrowski’s driving fastball from the left side). . The Tigers have done it a little more with command than stuff, and no one should sell Will Vest, Tyler Holton and Jason Foley short, but they aren’t as dominant as the Cleveland crew.

Give the Guardians a slight edge in a series that may see a ton of relievers. – Eno Sarris


Why the Guardians will win

It seems like just yesterday, when we were all working together in the woeful AL Central and teasing the teams about their pathetic play and paltry payrolls. Now look at them. They represent 75 percent of the ALDS. One team has topped the AL Central all but six days this season: the Guardians. They’re actually better built for October than for 162 games. Their bullpen was not only the best in baseball, but also the best in mileage (or, well, ERA. They were better than any other team by more than half a run). With an abundance of days off before and during these playoff series, rookie manager Stephen Vogt can lean on Clase and company even more. The Tigers and the rest of the AL Central were introduced to Hunter Gaddis and Cade Smith and Tim Herrin this summer. For those in faraway places looking to prepare for some October excitement, get ready to learn about baseball’s best-kept secret. — Zack Meisel

Why the Tigers will win

Have you seen this team play? Constantly with their backs against the wall and constantly creating magical moments out of thin air, these players are on a high that has made them the most popular team in the game for over two months. They’ve proven that their patented pitching chaos can work. Skubal should be available to pitch in Game 2 and Game 5 (if necessary). As fearsome as Cleveland’s bullpen is, the Tigers are building their lineups in hopes of securing small advantages in late-inning scenarios. They just knocked off an Astros team with way more talent on paper. The Tigers’ lack of offense remains a concern, but if they can strike early against Cleveland’s starters, there’s no reason they can’t keep winning. — Cody Stavenhagen

Check back later for series predictions from Athletic’s MLB staff.


Guardians Player Spotlight: José Ramírez, 3B

Perhaps the most common topic of conversation about José Ramírez – who is on his way to a sixth-place top-six finish in AL MVP voting over the past eight years – is that he is underrated. If that conversation happens often enough, maybe he will reach the status of being judged correctly. He finished one home run short of becoming the seventh player in league history with a 40/40 season, but no one outside of Cleveland noticed as Shohei Ohtani was busy recording a 50/50 campaign. So Ramírez said he will shoot for “80/80” next year. Nothing is impossible” – in one of those scenes where everyone else in the room is laughing but he remains stoic and you think, “Wait, maybe he means it.” Ramírez is the heartbeat of Cleveland, a guy who can hit one in the seats, knock one in the hole, and run until his helmet flies off. He’s just annoying to play against. And a starring role in a postseason run could ultimately elevate him into the ranks of highly rated players. As his teammate, Austin Hedges, said: “These are the moments that make you immortal. He’s already immortalized in Cleveland, but I just want him to be immortalized (by) the world.” — Meisel

Tigers player in the spotlight: Tarik Skubal, LHP

Skubal is the obvious choice to put in the spotlight. If you told the Tigers right now that they were going to Game 5 with Skubal on the mound, they’d take it. The presumptive AL Cy Young Award winner surrendered just one run in seven innings in his lone start against the Guardians this season. His varied offensive schemes – fastball, changeup, sinker, slider – make him a threat to any hitter, and he has become an unpredictable force who storms the strike zone no matter which weapon he chooses. Including the Wild Card Series, the Tigers are 22-10 on Skubal’s opening days this season. Without him they wouldn’t be here. Can he now take them one step further? — Stavenhagen

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Story of the tape

Who has the edge?

TEAMS R/G SP ERA RP-ERA OPS+

4.21 (20th)

3.69 (4th)

3.55 (5th)

94 (22nd)

4.40 (14th)

4.40 (24th)

2.57 (1st)

99 (18th)

Guardian’s top performers

PLAYER POS KEY STATISTICS WAR

Line-up

3B

39 HR, 39 2B, 143 OPS+

6.8

Rotation

RHP

3.47 ERA, 187 Ks, 117 ERA+

2.7

Bullpen

RHP

0.61 ERA, 47 saves, 674 ERA+

4.5

Fieldwork

2B

20 DRS, 15.7 UZR

15.7 (dWAR)

Tigers top performers

PLAYER POS KEY STATISTICS WAR

Line-up

L.F

24 hours, 27 2B, 133 OPS+

5.4

Rotation

LHP

2.39 ERA, 228 Ks, 170 ERA+

6.3

Bullpen

RHP

2.82 ERA, 0.4 HR/9, 145 ERA+

1.5

Fieldwork

C.F

5 DRS, 3.1 UZR

4.2 (dWAR)


Guardians need to be read

The unsung heroes who brought the Guardians into October

How the Guardians improbably marched to the playoffs

The stories behind the Guardians’ breakout shine in the bullpen

A look inside Stephen Vogt’s journey to becoming Cleveland’s manager

Tigers you must read

Andy Ibáñez becomes baseball’s latest unlikely playoff hero

Tarik Skubal is the AL Cy Young favorite. Meet the “role model” he calls his brother

For Tigers manager AJ Hinch, his team’s clinch brings a sip of redemption

Tigers’ Tyler Holton, once a standout, is now one of the best pitchers in baseball

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(Top image: José Ramírez: Brandon Sloter / Image Of Sport / Getty Images; Tarik Skubal: Tim Warner / Getty Images)