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Updated at 10:00 AM ET on Sunday, October 13, 2024

The Atlantic tropical disturbance, which the National Hurricane Center has officially named Invest 94L, has a well-defined circulation, but no thunderstorms orbit the center. It plows westward through a very dry atmosphere. Moderate winds at upper levels push the moisture they carry south.

Around the middle of the week, the environment over the tropical Atlantic Ocean becomes slightly more favorable for development. The National Hurricane Center has a low probability of at least a tropical depression forming as the system moves in the general direction of the northeastern Caribbean, but if the disturbance finds a pocket of moisture, something could happen.

The consensus of the computer forecast models is that the disruption will occur in the area of ​​Puerto Rico or the surrounding islands by the end of this week. Some computer forecasts suggest that the atmospheric environment may be more supportive of a tropical depression or tropical storm after that time. However, the possible tracks and intensities are all over the place, so we will continue to monitor the situation.

A strong cold front will move through Florida this week. That should keep the continental US protected from tropical systems at least until next weekend.

Everyone in the Northeast Caribbean should stay tuned this week until we see how this system develops.