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Davante Adams traded to Jets: Fantasy Football Impact
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Davante Adams traded to Jets: Fantasy Football Impact

Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Davante Adams looks on before an NFL football game between the Raiders and the Cleveland Browns, Sunday, Sept. 29, 2024, in Las Vegas. (AP Photo/David Becker)

The Las Vegas Raiders have traded wide receiver Davante Adams to the New York Jets in exchange for a conditional third-round pick. (AP Photo/David Becker)

Finally, Davante Adams trade news finally dropped! The Raiders traded Davante Adams to the New York Jets on Tuesday morning, October 15.

As many expected, he will head to New York to reunite with his former quarterback, Aaron Rodgers. Once again in green, but this time for the Jets, who are looking to get their second and fourth seasons back on track.

Let’s take a look at what the news means for your fantasy football teams.

There’s no doubt that it’s taken some time for Aaron Rodgers and Garrett Wilson to build a better rapport, but in Weeks 5 and 6, fantasy football managers got a taste of what they’re truly capable of. Wilson has finished as a top-six fantasy receiver in each of those outings with over 100 receiving yards and a score, although he has done so with 33 total targets.

Obviously, Adams’ presence will mean a lower target share for Wilson. In each of the seasons that Aaron Rodgers started and ended with Adams in the lineup (2016, 2018-2021), Adams was targeted on a whopping 19.5% of his routes per PFF. In fact, he achieved a target percentage of 29.5% or higher on routes run in three of those five seasons. Simply put, Rodgers is looking for Adams early and often, which will likely limit both wideouts’ ceiling going forward.

The good news for Wilson? While he will certainly lose targets to Adams, it could be good news for the efficiency of the targets he receives. Since Wilson was drafted in 2021, he has seen 83 targets while in double coverage — fourth-most among wide receivers in that span.

Of course, what Adams wins in this Jets offense is the quality of the targets he receives. Over the past two seasons, Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell ranked 27th or lower among 35 QBs with more than 250 attempts over the past two seasons in accurate throw percentage, per PFF; that translates to a low target percentage (70.6%) that ranks 62nd out of 96 eligible wide receivers.

What he loses in terms of ‘elite’ goal share he will likely make up for in overall quality of goals, while also benefiting from some of the attention Wilson receives from opposing defenses. Remember that comment about Wilson’s high target percentage against double teams in coverage? Adams isn’t far behind him in that regard, as he had 77 such targets in the same window (ranking seventh).

TL; DR – Each of these elite wide receivers should be viewed as weekly WR2 options with top-five upside. They will eat up each other’s overall volume, but they should benefit greatly in terms of open target percentage.

Through the first six weeks of the season, Allen Lazard was a thorn in the side of fantasy managers thanks to a strong bond with Rodgers. Lazard has accounted for the same number of end zone targets (4) as Wilson in that span, hauling in two more touchdowns (albeit one on a Hail Mary) and only 45 fewer receiving yards.

While Adams and Wilson are clearly the best wide receivers in this offense, Lazard will likely still play a role that eats up some of the overall upside of each of them individually. Lazard is clearly an integral part of Rodgers’ inner circle of trust, and that’s worth a lot. While he will undoubtedly take the biggest hit from Adams’ arrival, he will likely at least still take on some red zone work, which could keep him in the mix as a weekly flex consideration in plus matchups.

Rookie tight end Brock Bowers has already dominated most conversations about the Raiders offense this year. With Adams permanently out of the mix for targets, there’s little doubt that, barring injuries, Bowers will likely lead this team in targets, receiving yards, and possibly receiving touchdowns (although how many of those will be scored this year, is not known).

Bowers currently leads all tight ends with 37 receptions and 384 receiving yards (the next highest totals are Trey McBride and George Kittle with 28 receptions and Dallas Goedert with 301 receiving yards). Considering that most other “elite” tight end options face more competition for targets (Sam LaPorta with Amon-Ra St. Brown, McBride with Marvin Harrison Jr., Mark Andrews with Isaiah Likely), it seems suggests that there may not be a safer way. option at the current position than Bowers.

Stay tuned for more fantasy impact from the huge Davante Adams trade