While Green Party candidate Jill Stein is unlikely to win the presidency, her support could be decisive in key Blue Wall battleground states, with razor-thin margins between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, as polls show.

Stein, who is on the ballot in key swing states including Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, has faced criticism from Democrats in recent weeks as the race tightens amid claims she is giving Trump, the Republican nominee, an edge.

On Friday, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) released a new ad titled “Crucial” aimed at voters in those three states and accused Stein of siphoning support from Harris, the Democratic nominee. The ad shows Stein’s face turning into Trump’s, with the message: “A vote for Stein is really a vote for Trump.”

The ad also includes a video clip of Trump speaking at a June campaign rally in Philadelphia, saying, “Jill Stein, I like her a lot. You know why? She’s taking 100 percent of them (the Democrats).”

While Democrats say voters who support Stein might be Democratic, it is unclear whether all those voters would otherwise have supported Harris or chosen not to vote at all.

Stein’s campaign spokesperson said this earlier Newsweek in an email: “The idea that Democrats and Republicans own everyone’s votes and that the Greens are supposedly ‘stealing’ votes from the political establishment is ridiculous. No candidate owns your vote, they have to earn your vote.”

Harris’ clearest path to victory next month would be winning the three “blue wall” battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, barring any shock results elsewhere. Trump’s most efficient path to 270 votes in the Electoral College would be to win the swing states of North Carolina, Georgia and Pennsylvania. Trump narrowly won Pennsylvania against former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2016, but President Joe Biden reversed it in 2020.

Newsweek contacted Stein and Harris’ campaign via email on Sunday for comment.

Pennsylvania

The Keystone State plays a crucial role in the presidential race, as the winner of Pennsylvania and its 19 electoral votes — more than any other swing state — could determine the outcome of the 2024 election.

A New York TimesA /Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College poll of 857 likely voters in Pennsylvania showed Harris leading Trump, but both dropped their share of the vote when third-party candidates like Stein were included.

The poll, conducted between October 7 and 10, shows Harris with 50 percent of the vote, compared to Trump’s 47 percent. However, if we also include third-party candidates, Harris drops to 49 percent and Trump to 45 percent, while Stein brings in 1 percent and Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver less than 1 percent. Harris’ lead is within the margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

A recent Quinnipiac University survey from Oct. 3 to 7 found that among 1,412 likely voters, Stein and Oliver each received 1 percent of the vote in Pennsylvania, with Harris at 49 percent and Trump at 46 percent. In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup between just the Democratic and Republican nominees, Harris maintained 49 percent support, while Trump closed in with 47 percent.

Among independents, who make up 23 percent of respondents, 43 percent support Harris, while 47 percent support Trump and 3 percent support third-party candidates, the poll shows. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.

With Harris’s narrow lead within the margin of error, Stein’s 1 percent support could tip the balance. If it were shifted to Harris, it could give her an edge over Trump, but if not, it could just as easily tilt the race in Trump’s favor.

Aggregate polls, which provide an overall sense of public opinion, are constantly updated as new data is added, causing the averages to shift in real time. The following percentages apply from Sunday morning.

The TimesThe overall poll shows Harris leading at 49 percent, compared to Trump’s 48 percent in Pennsylvania. FiveThirtyEight shows a closer race, with Harris at 48 percent and Trump at 47.3 percent, while The Hill has Harris at 48.7 percent and Trump at 48 percent.

Wisconsin

Stein is doing the same in Wisconsin. The Quinnipiac University poll of 1,073 likely voters in the state, conducted between Oct. 3 and 7, showed Trump leading Harris in the state, 48 to 46 percent. Stein and Oliver each received 1 percent support.

The margin between the Republican and Democratic candidates remains the same when third-party candidates are excluded: Trump receives 49 percent of the vote and Harris 47 percent.

Among independents, who make up 33 percent of respondents, 47 percent support Trump, 43 percent support Harris and 3 percent support third-party candidates, the poll found. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

A Marquette Law School poll of 882 registered voters conducted between September 18 and 26 yielded similar results, with Stein receiving 1 percent of the vote and Harris leading by 4 percentage points, 48 ​​percent to Trump’s 44 percent. This lead is within the margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

Most aggregate polls show Harris and Trump separated by less than 1 percentage point, underscoring the importance of Stein’s share of the vote.

The TimesThe overall poll shows Harris leading at 49 percent, compared to Trump’s 48 percent in Wisconsin. FiveThirtyEight shows a closer race, with Harris at 47.9 percent and Trump at 47.3 percent, while The Hill shows Trump at 0.1 percent, 48.4 percent to Harris’ 48.3 percent.

Michigan

While a Quinnipiac University poll of a likely 1,007 Michigan voters showed Stein was no longer in the game — a sharp contrast from last month’s poll, which showed her at 2 percent — other surveys suggest she has similar support maintains in the state.

The poll showed Trump in the lead with 50 percent of the vote, Harris with 47, and Oliver and independent candidate Cornel West with 1 percent each. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Stein has spoken out against US policy toward Israel during the ongoing war in Gaza. Michigan has a large Arab-American community, and according to a late August poll by the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), 40 percent of Muslim voters supported Stein, compared to just 12 percent for Harris and 18 percent for Trump.

“The Democrats cannot win without the support of the American Muslim community. And that community has left the station and will not return unless the Democrats decide that it is more important to them to win the election than to carry out the genocide,” Stein said. said in a September interview with Newsweek. Israel denies that it is committing genocide.

The TimesThe overall poll shows Harris leading at 49 percent, compared to Trump’s 48 percent in Michigan. FiveThirtyEight shows a closer race, with Harris at 47.7 percent and Trump at 47.0 percent, while The Hill shows Trump at 0.8 percent, 48.7 percent to Harris’ 47.9 percent.