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Jill Stein hurts Donald Trump more than Kamala Harris, poll suggests
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Jill Stein hurts Donald Trump more than Kamala Harris, poll suggests

A new poll shows that Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein is drawing more voters from former President Donald Trump than from Vice President Kamala Harris.

According to a Noble Predictive Insights survey released last week, Harris has a narrow lead over Trump in a hypothetical three-way race. With Stein on the ballot, Harris’ lead widens, signaling a potential spoiler effect similar to what many Democrats blamed Stein for what he did to Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election.

The poll shows Harris leading Trump 49 percent to 47 percent. However, with Stein in the race, Trump’s support drops to 46 percent, while Harris maintains her support at 49 percent, indicating that Stein receives more support from Trump than from Harris. While Stein’s voter base remains relatively small, about 1 percent, it could be crucial in elections that depend on tight margins in swing states.

The poll surveyed 2,300 likely voters and the margin of error was +/- 2.1 percent.

Jill Stein
Jill Stein in New York City in 2016. A new poll suggests the Green Party presidential candidate is drawing more voters from Donald Trump than from Kamala Harris.

From Tine Dennis/ASSOCIATED PRESS

The dynamic echoes concerns from 2016, when Stein’s candidacy was seen by many as siphoning votes from Clinton in crucial states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, ultimately aiding Trump’s victory.

In Michigan, Trump defeated Clinton by 10,704 votes. Stein received 51,463 votes in the state. In Pennsylvania, Trump defeated Clinton by 44,292 votes. Stein received 49,941 votes. In Wisconsin, Trump defeated Clinton by 22,748 votes. Stein received 31,072 votes.

The legacy of that election looms large for the 2024 elections, especially as Harris aims to maintain a coalition of voters that spans a huge political breadth, from former Republican Vice President Dick Cheney to progressive independent Sen. Bernie Sanders.

But this poll suggests the wind may be blowing away.

This week, Stein received a message of support from David Duke, the former leader of the Ku Klux Klan. Duke, a known white supremacist, endorsed Stein over Trump, citing her criticism of U.S. policy toward Israel as the reason.

Stein has unequivocally rejected the endorsement, calling Duke a “racist troll” in a social media post. Still, the attention surrounding the endorsement has cast a shadow on Stein’s campaign and added a layer of controversy to an already complex race.

Duke’s public break with Trump marks a reversal of his statements of support from 2016 and 2020, accusing Trump of being too closely tied to Israel and the “Jewish lobby.”

While this development is unlikely to sway a large number of voters, it could influence far-right or nationalist parts of Trump’s base who feel alienated by his foreign policy positions.

For Trump, Stein’s emergence as a potential spoiler could be a crucial factor in battleground states, where even a small shift in votes could determine the outcome. For Harris, Stein’s candidacy could paradoxically provide an unexpected benefit, giving Trump votes and narrowing his path to victory.

Newsweek has contacted the Stein, Harris and Trump campaigns via email for comment.