TEL AVIV, Israel (AP) – Israel’s assassination of Yahya Sinwarthe top leader of Hamas and the mastermind behind the group’s Oct. 7 attack, marks a dramatic turning point in the brutal, years-long war that accompanied it.

Sinwar’s killing on Thursday decapitates an already reeling Palestinian militant group months of killing up and down its ranks. And it is a powerful symbolic achievement for Israel in its struggle to destroy Hamas.

The massacre comes just ten days after Israelis and Palestinians were killed marked a year since the deadliest fighting in their decades-long conflict broke out, could set the stage for how the rest of the war will play out, or even lead to an end — depending on how Israel and Hamas choose to proceed.

Sinwar’s death could be a turning point for Israel toward ending the war

Sinwar, who was appointed head of Hamas After its previous leader was killed in July in an explosion blamed on Israel, he spent years building up Hamas’ military strength and is believed to have masterminded the Oct. 7, 2023, attack. After that attack, when Hamas-led militants killed about 1,200 people and kidnapped about 250 others, Israel vowed to destroy Hamas and kill every one of its leaders.

With Sinwar at the top of the wanted list, his death is a major achievement for Israel. Analysts say Sinwar’s killing offers Israel, which has struggled to formulate an exit strategy from Gaza, a way out to end the war.

“This would really be the icing on the cake for Israel,” said Nomi Bar-Yaacov, associate fellow of the International Security Program at the Chatham House think tank in London. “It should be easier to reach an agreement.”

With the architect of the October 7 attacks eliminated, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could now tell Israelis that one of the war’s objectives has been achieved. Politically, that could allow him to be more flexible on a ceasefire that ends the war in exchange for hostages — a condition he has so far refused to accept, at least in part, critics say, because it could threaten his rule.

Sinwar’s death could have broader implications depending on Israel’s next steps

Analysts said the achievement marked such a transformation that it was an opportunity for Israel to signal its willingness to end fighting further afield in the region, including in Lebanon, where Israel is fighting Hezbollah.

“The possibility of ending the war completely, just like in Lebanon, … is completely in our hands,” Giora Eiland, a former head of Israel’s National Security Council, told Israeli Channel 12 News, saying Israel should take advantage of the death of Sinwar. to present the conditions for ending the wars on both fronts.

The families of hostages in Gaza had a similar message for Netanyahu. A group representing the families welcomed Sinwar’s killing but recognized the potential opportunity and called on Israel to refocus its efforts on negotiating a deal.

“Netanyahu, don’t bury the hostages. Now go to the negotiators and the Israeli public and present a new Israeli initiative,” Einav Zangauker, whose son Matan is being held in Gaza, said in a social media post.

Khaled Elgindy, a senior fellow at the Washington-based think tank the Middle East Institute, warned that Netanyahu has shown little indication he is seeking an end to the conflict, with the military in recent weeks suspending operations in northern Gaza has intensified.

“The war … is not over yet,” Netanyahu said in a video statement after the killing.

Netanyahu governs with the support of two far-right parties that have threatened to overthrow the government if the war ends under a ceasefire. They reiterated their opposition to a deal after Sinwar’s murder. They also support the establishment of Israeli settlements in the Gaza Strip, something the Israeli leader has publicly ruled out.

Netanyahu, who is on trial for alleged corruption, has also seen his political fortunes rise during the war after they plummeted in response to Hamas’ attack last year. By prolonging the war, he can enjoy more support after the successes he is achieving.

Other top Hamas officials may be more flexible

Sinwar was seen as a hardliner with close ties to the armed wing of Hamas, and during repeated ceasefire negotiations with Israel was seen as having the final say on any deal for Gaza and the release of dozens of Israeli hostages .

Sinwar’s views were at odds with those of Israel. He stood by demands for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza and a lasting ceasefire — even though more than 42,000 Palestinians have been killed in the ongoing war, according to local officials. the area is in ruins.

According to Elgindy, Sinwar’s death is likely to give more flexibility and control to the group’s political leadership in Qatar. This also includes Khalil al-Hayya and Khaled Mashaal, key Hamas delegates at the months-long talks.

These leaders could be more responsive to pressure from Qatar, a key mediator that hosts some of Hamas’ top leaders. Unlike Sinwar, these leaders are also not in hiding in Gaza, which could speed up the progress of an agreement.

Hamas leaders have proven to be replaceable in the past

For Hamas, Sinwar’s killing leaves a gaping hole in the militant group’s leadership, with its future in Gaza and beyond uncertain. It is a symbolic blow to a group already reeling from multiple assassinations of its leaders.

An Israeli airstrike killed Marwan Issa, deputy leader of Hamas’s military wing, in March. Ismail Haniyeh, the former political leader of Hamas, was killed in July in the explosion in Tehran, which was blamed on Israel.

Then in August, Israel said it had killed Mohammed Deif, the Hamas military chief and co-mastermind of the October 7 attack, in an airstrike. Hamas has not confirmed that death.

Elgindy called Sinwar’s killing a “major blow” to Hamas. But, he added, it was “not fatal because everyone is replaceable.”

But with so many leaders and commanders killed, it is not clear at this point who could fill his shoes.

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Jeffery reported from Ramallah, West Bank. Associated Press writer Danica Kirka contributed from London.