Welcome back to another edition of NHL Predictions. Our writers are here every day Last word on hockey View the games and provide analyses. Our team analyzes the key matchups, storylines and statistics and then makes predictions based on how they could play out. For this edition, the New York Islanders will take on the Columbus Blue Jackets. Don’t forget to catch all the action as our writers continue this series throughout the 2024-2025 season.

NHL predictions

New York Islanders vs. Columbus Blue Jackets

Time: 7:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time (EDT)

TV: MSGSN, FDSNOH

This match will pit two Metropolitan Division rivals against each other. Only one point separates these two in the rankings. Tonight, the Islanders have lost four of their last five. Through nine games, New York ranks sixth in the metro with a 3-4-2 record. Additionally, they are one point behind the 4-3-1 Blue Jackets in fifth. The valuable two points are on the line at Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio. This will be the first of three matches between the two this season. In the last ten meetings between the teams, the Islanders have a 9-0-1 lead and have won the last three meetings.

The story of the islanders

The Islanders continued to show offensive inconsistencies in their play last night, a 3-1 loss to the Anaheim Ducks. In another frustrating loss where the Islanders defeated the Ducks 41-22 but were only able to convert one goal. This game was eerily similar to the 1-0 loss to the Detroit Red Wings last week, where the Islanders outscored them 30-11. The latest disappointment comes after two games in a row in which they scored three goals. Furthermore, their 21 goals this season put them in 31st place in the league. The only goal the Islanders scored came on the power play. That unit was 1/4 and simply wasn’t good enough as they currently sit at 29th with 13.3%. They would like to get more out of their best player Mathew Barzal. Despite scoring the only goal last night, his first against a goalkeeper, he is still without a 5v5 goal this season.

The defense rebounded in the Ducks game, holding them to just two goals on 22 shots. The only problem is that the penalty kill is just as bad as the power play. One empty net and two power play goals were what defeated them. This drops the penalty kill percentage to 62.5%, 31st in the league. That’s why they wasted great play from their goaltender Ilya Sorokin. After last night, he is 2-2-1 and has stopped 122 of 131 shots for a save percentage of .931. He has a goals-against average of 1.80. However, in three of his five starts he has conceded one assist goal or less. The two more starts he got were wins. After playing game one of these back-to-backs, they turn to the struggling Semyon Varlamov and hope for a rebound. He has a 1-2-1 record with an .856 SV% and a 3.72 GAA.

The Blue Jackets story

For this edition of NHL Predictions, the Blue Jackets are riding high after an offensive explosion in a 6-1 win over the Edmonton Oilers. Columbus came into this season with not many expectations, but they have played well to start this season. They alternated losses and wins in their first eight games. Offensively, they rank last in expected goals for 14.08. Despite this, they are still among the best in the league at 4.13 per game, good for fourth in the league. They are led by their young tow hooks that turn into budding stars. Kirill Marchenko, a 2018 second-round pick, is off to a good start with a team leading by 11 points through nine games. Plus, a few first-round picks are also contributing factors. From the 2020 draft, Yegor Chinakhov is a point-per-game with eight in eight games. Finally, 2023 draft pick Adam Fantilli has five points in eight games.

Defensively, things were also solid for the Blue Jackets. Led by veteran Zack Werenski, another one of their first-round picks this time from 2015, he is points-per-game with eight in eight games. The team ranks 15th in goals conceded with 3.13 per game, which is middle of the pack. Their underlying numbers are even slightly better than that. They rank seventh in expected goals conceded with 16.34. This is due to limiting the opponent’s quality chances. They rank 22nd in high danger shots with 16. On the other hand, their goalkeeping tandem of Elvis Merzlikins and Daniil Tarasov performed well. Evlis was the better of the two with a 1-2 record with a .900 SV% and a 2.76 GAA. Daniil with a 3-1-1 record, an .886 SV% and a 3.42 GAA.

NHL predictions

In a match where both sides are desperate for the two points, this will come down to the Islanders defense versus the high-flying Blue Jackets attack. We don’t think the Islanders offense will be able to score enough to keep up with Columbus, putting pressure on their defense to keep them off the board. Plus, that thought process took into account the fact that New York had to travel for a second at a time, and it’s not promising for them. Signs point to the Blue Jackets snapping their losing streak against the Islanders in this game.

Prediction: Blue Jackets win 4-2

Prop betting

Fanduel has the Blue Jackets moneyline at +136, we like the underdog at home here. The over/under is 6.5, given the slow Islander offense it’s up to the Blue Jackets to skip that one. We don’t think this will happen, so take the under. Kyle Palmieri has always been popular as a goal scorer for the Islanders so far and we think he scores one here. For the Blue Jackets, veteran center Sean Monahan has been good on the top line and we think that continues here.

Main photo credit: Aaron Doster – USA TODAY Sports

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