Anyone who steps outside in the morning can see that autumn is in full swing and winter is approaching. While the DC area experienced a few snowstorms last year, there are no promises that will happen again this year.

Forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) blame La Nina, where stronger-than-normal trade winds blow warmer water over the ocean’s surface, westward toward Asia. That leaves a mass of colder-than-normal water in the central Pacific, pushing the jet stream further north. For us, that usually means less snow.

“For the Mid-Atlantic region, or the greater DC area, we prefer above-normal temperatures along the East Coast, including the DC metro area,” said Jon Gottschalck, senior forecaster at NOAA.

When La Nina pushes the jet stream north, it means that most of our weather comes directly from the west, and thus higher amounts of precipitation are forecast for the more mountainous parts of the region west of DC and further into the Ohio Valley. .

“One thing that is often the case with La Nina… is that typically, with the warmer conditions and more of a storm track to the west, there tends to be less snow in the mid-Atlantic region,” Gottschalck said.

He predicts lots of snow around the Great Lakes and northern plains of the US. The lakes produce snow in the early parts of winter, when they are warmer and can provide plenty of moisture. Colder periods later in the winter maintain snow chances.

Normally, the really big snowstorms that hit the DC region come when the jet stream drops south and moisture from the ocean moves into the area. Last year, when the DC area finally got snow again, the Pacific Ocean saw a strong El Niño, the opposite of La Nina.

Current forecasts also don’t lean much toward the so-called ‘Polar Vortex’ around here – those long stretches of dangerously cold weather when air masses from Canada settle overhead.

If you’re a snow lover disappointed by all of this, you should also note that NOAA expects La Nina to be on the weaker side this winter, so forecasters aren’t nearly as convinced that certain things will play out this way either.

“The winter outlook is probabilistic in nature,” said Gottschalck. “However, the nature of a probabilistic forecast means that other outcomes are always possible. Even if they are less likely. For our probabilities to be consistent with the nature of these prospects, that less likely outcome must occur from time to time.”

The chances are also evenly split between a wetter than usual winter, a normal winter, or a drier than usual winter for the DC region – so a snowstorm is still a possibility, even if it’s less likely to occur.

“There is a dry signal for less snowfall in that region,” Gottschalck said. “But there is more uncertainty given the weaker La Nina. So warmer overall, quite uncertain with precipitation, possibly less snowfall this year for the DC area.

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