After two exciting games in Cleveland, the New York Yankees are one win away from their first World Series since 2009. The Yankees played two fairly routine games in the Bronx to start this series, but the Cleveland Guardians roared back at Progressive Field: after a After a shocking walkoff win on Thursday, the Guardians came back from an early deficit to tie the Yankees on Friday, but couldn’t hang on in the ninth.

Can the Yankees secure their spot? Will the Guardians return this series to the Bronx? We’ve got you covered with pre-match predictions, live updates and analysis, followed by our takeaways after the final pitch.

New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians, 8:08 PM ET

Pitching Match: Tanner Bibee (0-1, 3.60 ERA) vs. Carlos Rodon (1-1, 4.66)

What do the Yankees need to do to secure their spot in the World Series?

Jorge Castillo: A solid start from Rodon, for starters. Rodon was outstanding in Game 1, holding the Guardians to one run over six innings. He collected nine strikeouts and generated 25 whiffs. Most importantly, he controlled his emotions. He acknowledged that was an issue in his ALDS start against the Kansas City Royals. He has said he learned from that experience and will have to take that lesson on the road for the first time this season.

Bradford Doolittle: The Yankees are a more talented team, so while nothing needs to be done, their ideal formula remains the same: grab an early lead to put the Guardians in a reactive mode, rather than in the web of their bullpen when it has a lead to protect. Bibee did not fare well in his Game 2 outing and is working on three days of rest for the first time since his college days. New York can completely take the air out of the Guardians’ balloon with a few early runs.

Buster Olney: Just keep swinging big with a lineup built on power. Recently Giancarlo Stanton took early batting practice on the field from a pitching machine, to see the ball, to see how it spins – sliders away – and on this round Aaron Judge joined him on the field. The way Stanton and Judge are doing it, maybe all the Yankees will do it.

What must the Guardians do to stay alive?

Castillo: How about building a comfortable lead against Rodon and staying away from their A-side bullpen? Another close game would mean more stress for their top relievers. We’ve already seen Emmanuel Clase and Cade Smith falter. Rodon was dominant in Game 1, but the Guardians were one of the best teams in baseball against left-handed pitchers during the regular season. They defeated Tarik Skubal, the best starter in the majors and a southpaw, in Game 5 of the ALDS. They are able to set up a crooked number or two early.

Doolittle: For Cleveland, it’s the opposite of the Yankees’ plan, and that means Bibee has to align. He seemed annoyed the first time he went out with his short outing, although his numbers wouldn’t have warranted a longer leash. A chip on the shoulder isn’t always the worst thing in a competitive situation, so if he can string together a few outs and the Guardians can score a run, then they can head to their bullpen. Making that run will be the hardest part if Jose Ramirez and/or Josh Naylor can’t finally put together a big game.

Olney: Their relievers need to become dominant again, as this has been the backbone of the Guardians all season. During the regular season, Emmanuel Clase and Cade Smith faced 559 batters and gave up a total of three home runs – and during Games 3 and 4, Clase and Smith gave up three home runs to Giancarlo Stanton (2) and Aaron Judge (1). Given the lack of depth in the Cleveland rotation, the Guardians can’t win without excellence from their bullpen.

What has been the most impressive performance for you so far?

Castillo: Since Brad and Buster are about to sing Stanton’s praises, I’m going with Gleyber Torres. The Yankees’ leadoff hitter reached base in the first inning in all four games and in seven of the team’s eight postseason games. He singled in Game 1, doubled in Game 2, walked in Game 3 and singled in Game 4. Juan Soto followed that single in Game 4 with a two-run home run to give New York an early lead deliver. The Yankees have for the most part squandered early scoring opportunities. But Torres has kept up the pressure.

Doolittle: Giancarlo Stanton, hands down. Cade Smith doesn’t give up home runs. This version of Stanton moved him deeply. Emmanual Clase doesn’t give up home runs. This version of Stanton moved him deeply. He has filled the gap left by Judge’s production shortfall.

Olney: Stanton has had so many ups and downs in his time with the Yankees, so many injuries, so many waves of talk show callers begging the organization to eat his contract and move on. But in the postseason, his performances have been almost uniformly excellent, and in this series he’s doing his damage against great pitchers. His home run in Game 4 tied Babe Ruth and Aaron Judge for career postseason homers; his slugging percentage in the playoffs is over .650. Remarkable.

Who will win tomorrow – and who will win the series?

Castillo: I picked the Yankees in six games, so I’m sticking with that. The Guardians find some success against Carlos Rodon in their second attempt to board a flight to New York for Game 6 on Monday.

Doolittle: Cleveland wins a low-scoring Game 5, sending the series back to Yankee Stadium. But I still think New York will win the series. The Guardians have been resilient in October, when that description has become a buzzword. That gives them one more match.

Olney: Think of Tanner Bibee as the Guardian wearing a headlamp, because he’s the only player on this team capable of leading them out of this 3-1 mess. He has to pitch great and he has to give them at least five or six innings – and he showed in the regular season that he is capable of doing that. But Soto, Judge, and Stanton are all fully activated now, and I’ll be surprised if the Guardians expand this series to six games.

Live updates

Tune in during the game for live updates and analysis from Game 5.