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    • Hurricane Oscar Track and Trail from Hurricane Center
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    Hurricane Oscar Track and Trail from Hurricane Center

    Vaseline Posted on

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    Here is the latest update on Hurricane Oscar.

    Oscar is considered a Category 1 storm based on sustained wind speed. As of the National Hurricane Center advisory at 8 a.m. EDT, a west-southwest or westward motion with a slower forward speed is expected tonight, followed by a turn to the northwest and north on Monday and Tuesday.

    Cone of uncertainty: See the latest graph from the NHC

    Satellite images: See the latest satellite image from NOAA, for a clearer view of the storm’s size

    According to the National Hurricane Center, the center of the storm was located 115 miles east-northeast of Guantanamo at 8 a.m. EDT on Sunday.

    According to the latest NHC advisory, Oscar is moving towards the west-southwest at a speed of 20 km/h.

    On the forecast path, Oscar’s center will pass over Greater Inagua this morning, make landfall along Cuba’s northeastern coast later this afternoon or evening, and then pass through eastern Cuba this evening and Monday.

    Oscar will then accelerate northeast over the central Bahamas on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at nearly 80 mph with higher gusts.

    Expected consequences of Hurricane Oscar

    The advice warns of the following dangers:

    WIND: Hurricane conditions will persist through this morning in parts of the warning area in the southeastern Bahamas, particularly on Great Inagua Island. Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in Cuba this afternoon and late this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and possibly in the Cuba observation area this afternoon through Monday. Tropical storm conditions will decrease in the Turks and Caicos Islands this morning.

    RAINFALL: Rain amounts of 5 to 10 inches are expected in eastern Cuba through Tuesday, with isolated amounts of 6 inches. In the southeastern Bahamas, 5 to 10 cm is expected, with isolated amounts around 15 cm. For a complete view of the forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Oscar, see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1. shtml?rainqpf .

    STORM DISK: A dangerous storm surge is expected to cause significant coastal flooding on Great Inagua Island in the southeastern Bahamas, where water levels are expected to be between 200 and 4,000 feet above normal tide levels. Along Cuba’s northern coast, water levels of 1 to 3 feet above normal tides are expected in areas with onshore winds. Near the coast the wave will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

    Where is Hurricane Oscar?

    Here are the latest details on Oscar, as per the NHC advisory at 8 a.m. EDT.

    • Location: 185 miles east-northeast of Guantanamo, Cuba
    • Maximum sustained wind: 80 km/h
    • Movement: West at 20 km/h

    Oscar’s estimated minimum central pressure is 986 millibars.

    Anything larger than 979 MB is an indication that a storm may cause minimal damage. According to the NHC, a storm’s minimum central pressure is not necessarily a hazard, but it can be an indication of whether a storm will intensify in the future. Strengthening usually follows a drop in pressure, and weakening usually follows an increase in pressure.

    What does the cone of uncertainty represent?

    The cone of uncertainty, posted by the NHC, shows some possible paths from the center of the storm. When following the weather forecast, keep in mind that Oscar’s impact can also be felt outside the cone – and that storm tracks travel outside the cone about a third of the time.

    Watches, warnings

    • SUMMARY OF APPLICABLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for… * Southeastern Bahamas * Northern coast of the Cuban provinces of Holguin and Guantanamo to Punta Maisi
    • A Hurricane Watch is in effect for… * North Coast of Cuba’s Las Tunas Province A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for… * Turks and Caicos Islands * South Coast of Cuba’s Guantánamo Province * North Coast of Cuba’s Las Tunas Province
    • A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for… * Northern coast of Cuba’s Camaguey province A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property must be completed urgently.
    • A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the expected first appearance of tropical storm force winds, conditions that make outdoor preparations difficult or dangerous.
    • A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
    • A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, usually within 48 hours.
    • Interests in the central Bahamas should monitor Oscar’s progress. Tropical storm observations may be needed for this area later today. For storm information specific to your area, check the products issued by your state meteorological service.

    Spaghetti models: follow Oscar here

    This automatically updated image shows how different spaghetti models track Hurricane Oscar:

    If the storm tracker does not load, click here.

    Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations cover a range of forecasting tools and models, and they are not all the same. The hurricane center uses only the four or five best-performing models to help make its forecasts.

    Helpful Hurricane Resources and Links

    (This story has been updated to add new information.)

    Vaseline
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