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What are the odds for election betting? Expert explains why Trump is the favorite
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What are the odds for election betting? Expert explains why Trump is the favorite

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Former President Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, has created a significant advantage in election betting in recent weeks, giving Americans a new way to try to piece together what might happen on Election Day..

“More than $2 billion has already been bet on the election,” Maxim Lott, head of ElectionBettingOdds.com, told Fox News Digital.

The comments come as Lott’s website, which uses data from five different betting sites to display a betting average, shows Trump has a 58.5% chance of winning the presidential election as of Monday.

The Lott website is not the only one that keeps track of bets. Popular sites like RealClearPolitics, which has become known over the years for tracking polling averages, are joining the fray.

TRUMP OPENS BIGGEST BETTING SINCE DAYS AFTER BIDEN’S OUTAGE

Donald Trump greets the crowd

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is shown during a campaign rally at the Findlay Toyota Arena on October 13, 2024 in Prescott Valley, Ariz. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

Like ElectionBettingOdds.com, RealClearPolitics’ betting average shows Trump as the favorite with a 59% chance of winning the election as of Monday.

Trump’s chances of winning the election have risen dramatically in recent weeks, with his Democratic opponent, Vice President Harris, being the betting favorite as recently as October 4 on RealClearPolitics. But Trump took charge the next day and hasn’t looked back, ultimately adding to the nearly 20 percentage point advantage the former president enjoyed on Monday.

For Lott, looking at betting averages gives people a much clearer picture of what the most likely outcome of the election is, compared to attempts to aggregate polls.

“These are really accurate. They’re more accurate than just looking at polls, or especially more accurate than listening to inflated experts,” Lott said.

“(The gamblers) look at all kinds of historical data, they look at trends,” he added. “I find the percentage more useful than the polls.”

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Close up shot of Kamala Harris

Democrat presidential candidate Vice President Harris addresses the media at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee on October 17, 2024. (SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images)

Lott, who was previously a programming executive producer for the Fox Business Network, also noted that people risk their own money to bet on an outcome, creating a market that has the ability to discipline people who get it wrong.

“If you’re not very smart or very biased, you’re going to lose your money pretty quickly, and then you might not gamble again in the next election,” Lott said.

Although election betting is newer than better-known gambling activities such as sports betting and casino games, Lott said the market has become robust enough to offer election watchers a glimpse of what the most likely outcome will be.

“Last cycle we traded over a billion dollars. That’s still (not) that much if you compare it to… the stock market or something, but it’s enough that we have a reliable indicator, and that’s what (is) important to us as users who just want to know what’s going to happen Lott said.

Close-up shot of Donald Trump of Pa. rally

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally on October 19, 2024 at Arnold Palmer Regional Airport in Latrobe, Pennsylvania. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)

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As for Trump’s lead, Lott said it likely reflects an end to the “honeymoon period” Harris enjoyed after being elevated as the Democrat nominee, noting that Trump had risen to about 70% and was likely to win the election before President Biden dropped his bid for re-election. elections and has again taken the lead.

“Things have kind of reverted to the mean: It’s a tough cycle for Democrats with things like inflation and immigration, and so for maybe a few months people thought, ‘Oh, Harris, this is interesting, this is new. this is refreshing,” and then it kind of sinks in: “This is the same administration we didn’t like with Biden,” Lott said.

Get the latest updates from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews and more on our Fox News Digital election hub.