The launch of Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 on Game Pass will hurt the game’s sales but will see millions of subscribers flock to the Xbox service, leading analysts say.

However, real success won’t be known right away, as it depends on whether Xbox can keep subscribers on the service in the months following the game’s launch.

Wedbush boss Michael Pachter believes that putting Call of Duty on Game Pass could lead to a loss of $6 million in sales, based on the idea that 25% of Game Pass subscribers could have already bought the game anyway. However, he adds that this move could lead to between three and four million people signing up for Game Pass to access the title.

“Overall good for Microsoft and for consumers,” he told us. “But the headline will say, ‘Call of Duty sales are down’.”

Ampere’s chief games analyst Piers Harding-Rolls is a little more conservative and thinks Call of Duty will result in a 10% increase in the number of Game Pass Ultimate subscribers (so 2.5 million). He also says that this won’t all be completely new users, as it also includes those upgrading from Game Pass Core and Game Pass Standard (Call of Duty will only be available in the ‘Ultimate’ tier). In fact, he thinks a good chunk of new subscribers will come from those tiers.

Harding-Rolls adds that while there will inevitably be some loss of revenue, there is scope to alleviate this through other forms of revenue generation.

“The removal of the $1 14-day trial offer is an indication that Microsoft needs to maximize its subscription revenue after introducing one of the biggest gaming franchises at launch,” he says.

“There’s no doubt that adding the latest Call of Duty will be expensive, at least initially, for Microsoft. However, Call of Duty is primarily a live-service game that generates a lot of money in-game. Microsoft will trade premium. selling full games in exchange for a larger audience that can be used to generate in-game revenue instead.

“One of the key questions is how this could impact how the game is monetized and whether there is an increased push for monetization in the game compared to previous entries in the franchise. In terms of audience expansion, Xbox and PC will likely be the key growth platforms offer some potential at launch, but I think Call of Duty’s streaming option will be the strongest fit for playing on TV screens and PC monitors instead from mobile devices where Call of Duty Mobile and Warzone are already popular.

Newzoo market analyst Brett Hunt also thinks Black Ops 6 will attract a stronger audience this year, especially compared to last year’s Modern Warfare 3. However, this is not only due to the inclusion in Game Pass.

“Black Ops has always been well received and with a mutually exclusive campaign from Modern Warfare, a new movement system in multiplayer and the return of round-based Zombies, this should result in numbers much closer to those of Modern Warfare 2 than those of 3. This is the most Call of Duty has revived in recent years, and the numbers will likely reflect this.”

Newzoo says Modern Warfare 2 attracted 21.7 million monthly active users in the US, compared to just 12 million for Modern Warfare 3.

A major point of discussion concerns the impact Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 will have on PlayStation. Sony has had a content and marketing exclusivity deal with Activision over Call of Duty for the past generation, which has now ended. Game Pass is also not available on PlayStation 5. Could this result in an audience shift from PlayStation to Xbox?

“Those who own both an Xbox and a PlayStation console may be persuaded to play the game on Microsoft’s devices, but cross-platform play and multi-platform accounts mean this isn’t necessarily a permanent decision,” explains Harding-Rolls out.

“There could indeed be a scenario where PlayStation-first multi-console gamers switch to Xbox to play the premium campaign while still playing F2P Warzone on their favorite console under one Activision account. As such, I’m not convinced that the longer PlayStation audience will be significantly disrupted in the long term, although Sony’s share of premium sales may be undermined to some extent.”

“I’m not convinced that the PlayStation audience will be significantly disrupted in the longer term, although Sony’s share of premium sales may be undermined to some extent”

Piers-Harding Rolls, Ampere

All the analysts we spoke to agreed on one thing: the success of this move will depend on whether Xbox can retain the new subscribers it brings in after the game’s launch period. And whether they are willing to implement a strategy to continuously acquire new subscribers by 2025.

Dr. Katan Games’ Serkan Toto believes there is pressure from Xbox to get this right.

“We all know that Microsoft’s gaming unit hasn’t grown as expected, which is why Microsoft greenlit the mega deal with Activision Blizzard in the first place,” he said. “Now the pressure on Xbox is sky-high: if Call of Duty doesn’t What could possibly be possible to make the Game Pass business model work?

“No one knows what Microsoft’s expectations are for Game Pass’ growth post-launch, but if Black Ops 6 doesn’t meet its targets, things could get very grim very quickly. I also wonder if Black Ops 6 will be able to retain subscribers in the long term or if the numbers will drop sharply again early next year after the initial hype has passed.”

However, Pachter believes that Call of Duty is the perfect game to keep users engaged.

“Call of Duty players tend to play much longer due to multiplayer and frequent map drops,” he says. “I think the average is closer to six months and there is a lot of playing throughout the year. The year-round players will sign up and stay.”