According to the latest political analysis, Rep. Lauren Boebert has lost some ground in her bid to retain Colorado’s Fourth Congressional District.

The Republican and staunch supporter of former President Donald Trump won the Centennial State’s third congressional district in 2022 by a razor-thin 546 votes. After that victory, Boebert moved to the neighboring 4th District, where she aims to fill the seat left vacant by Republican Rep. Ken Buck, who retired this year.

The district is the most Republican in the state, according to a Cook Partisan Voting Index from last year, which gave it an R+13 rating, compared to the 3rd District’s R+7 rating. The last time a Democrat won in the 4th District was Betsy Markey in 2008.

Although polls from FiveThirtyEight and The Hill suggest Boebert is favored to win and has Trump’s support, her fortunes appear to have slumped in the days before voters go to the polls, according to the Cook Political Report.

On Friday, the nonpartisan analyst firm moved the race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.” Boebert still holds a slim lead, although The New Republic reported “that this appears to be mainly due to the heavily Republican makeup of the district, rather than any tactful campaigning by Boebert.”

Newsweek has contacted Boebert’s team for comment.

Boebert’s Democratic opponent is Trisha Calvarese, a former speechwriter for the National Science Foundation. Calvarese said Boebert “melted” during a September debate between the pair, where the Republican was challenged for voting against veterans benefits.

Calvarese posted on

Calvarese was boosted by the news that she had raised more than half a million dollars in the first half of October, according to OpenSecrets. Her Oct. 16 filing showed her campaign’s fundraising total increased by $560,000 that month to $3.74 million.

This trails Boebert, whose same-day filing showed the Republican had raised $4.48 million.

Boebert made headlines for an incident in September 2023 when she was removed from a performance of the Beetle juice musical in Denver for vaping and being too loud during the show, in which video showed her and the man she was with fondling each other.

The race in Colorado’s fourth district comes as Democrats and Republicans battle for control of the House of Representatives, where the Republican Party is defending a narrow eight-seat majority.

There are 22 toss-up races across the country as of Saturday, according to the Cook Political Report. Ten of those seats are held by Democrats and fourteen by Republicans.