The current MLB betting odds:

The following MLB betting odds are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings seen on VSiN that are qualified for the Friday, October 25, 2024 MLB games. This report is intended to mimic the process that Steve Makinen and others members of the The VSiN Analytics team undergoes the MLB board every day when handicapping.

Top MLB Resources:

AJ’s corners

These are the best MLB bets and systems for today’s games, hand-picked by VSiN analyst AJ Makinen.

The World Series Game 1 home teams are on a 9-4 run (69.2%, +3.8 units, 29.2% ROI)
System match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-130 vs. NYY)

Trend: NYY has a solid 16-6 record as a ROAD underdog this season
System match: PLAY NY YANKEES (+110 at LAD)

Worse yet, bullpen teams continue to struggle to extend their winning streaks
Over the past two regular seasons, teams with a worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating in a matchup, following a two-game winning streak, have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. Worse bullpen teams with 3+ game winning streaks finished the past two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system is -7.2%. This was a very consistent angle.
*In the 2024 playoffs, those with two-game winning streaks are 1-6 for -5.77 unitsand those with three-match winning streaks are 1-3 for -2.58 units.
System agreements: 2 games – FADE NY YANKEES (+110 at LAD)

Trend: Under total is 7-14-1 this season, while NYY is a ROAD underdog
System match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u out of 8.5)

Trend: Jack Flaherty hasn’t been great in this postseason (15.1 IP, 12 ER, 7 BB)
System match: FADE LA DODGERS (-130 vs. NYY)

Strategies using MLB DraftKings betting splits data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and one that we think is a fantastic resource for bettors, are the bet split pages. These are the pages we built using the data DraftKings kindly provides us, detailing the money breakdowns and ticket distribution for points spreads, moneylines and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website ahead of opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s matches starting at 10:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to monitor and qualify the systems until the first pitch for best use.

DK MLB Betting Splits System #2: Majority betting groups have proven quite successful if not too many of them have been sidelined since the start of last season, and in fact the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups went to 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and a 2.2% ROI. This isn’t the return a professional gambler is looking for, but it’s a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Competitions (LIGHT PLAY): NY Yankees

DK MLB Betting Splits System #5: Majority bettors are performing at their worst in interleague matches since early 2023, scoring 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 UNITS and an ROI of -10.8%. This is more than two percentage points worse for returns and an indication that bettors have difficulty assessing the teams’ strengths/motives when playing against unknown opponents.
System Matching (FADE): NY Yankees

DK MLB Betting Splits System #7: Since the start of last season, there has been a clear up-and-down performance pattern for the majority bettors each month. The combined March/April ROI was -1.5%, May was a brutal -12.5% ​​and June has risen again to -5.3%. July has fallen to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5% ultimately a decline in September/October of -16.7%.

DK MLB Betting Splits System #8: Majority bettors had a terrible playoff season in 2023, with a month-long record of 19-21 (47.5%) for -10.51 UNITS and an ROI of -26.3%. These are usually high volume games, so gamblers lost a lot in October.
System Matching (FADE): NY Yankees

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Worse yet, bullpen teams continue to struggle to extend their winning streaks
I’ve found that fading teams with lower SM bullpen ratings looking to extend their winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the past two regular seasons, teams with a worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating in a matchup, following a two-game winning streak, have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. Worse bullpen teams with 3+ game winning streaks finished the past two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system is -7.2%. This was a very consistent angle.
*In the 2024 playoffs, those with two-game winning streaks are 1-6 for -5.77 unitsand those with three-game winning streaks are 1-3 for -2.58 units.
System agreements: 2 games – FADE NY YANKEES (+110 at LAD)

MLB postseason betting and systems

The MLB postseason is a twelve-team tournament consisting of four rounds, with each round played as a series with more and more games the deeper you go. Perhaps unlike other sports, due to the massive 162-game regular season schedule, the stakes of each MLB postseason game are greatly increased, and as such, a number of different or additional handicapping strategies must be employed. With that in mind, one of the most important factors in preparing for these games is knowing the history and the MLB betting/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s take a look at the top betting results from the recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover any nuggets that could make these playoffs profitable.

General postseason MLB betting odds

Line angles
Home favorites from -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs going back to 2018 have been very vulnerable, as they are only 71-72 SU (-31.41 units, ROI: -22%)
System match: FADE LA DODGERS (-130 vs. NYY)

Series gains status
Home court has proven to be somewhat advantageous in tied series, as hosts in this situation have gone 79-75 on runlines since 2015 (+15.79 units, ROI: 10.3%).
System match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-1.5 vs. NYY)

Total angles
The last three MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as even though the overall record is 78-71 overall, Overs have returned +25.53 units, a 17.1% ROI. The overall vig is heavily shaded towards Unders.
System match: PLAY OVER the total (o/h at 8.5)

Nine Top World Series MLB Betting Trend Systems

Over the past twenty years of World Series action, several great betting systems have emerged. You know you are going to bet on the games. Why not arm yourself with the most important data you’ve recently acquired?

WORLD SERIES System #1:
Home field advantage hasn’t meant much in recent World Series action, with the home team trailing 16-27 in the last 43 opportunities dating back to 2016 (-18.69 units, -43.5% ROI)
System match: FADE LA DODGERS (-130 vs. NYY)

WORLD SERIES System #3:
Oddly enough, the most profitable home teams in the World Series recently have been those between -110 and -125, or the very short favorites, as those teams are on an 18-12 run since 2000 (+3.79 units, 12 .6% ROI). )
System match: PLAY LA DODGERS (*if they are in this range, currently -130*)

WORLD SERIES System #4:
Overall, in terms of totals, there has been a very slight increase in Over in World Series games over the last fifteen years. However, in games with a total of eight or higher, Under has an 18-13 lead in that period (+2.8 units, 9% ROI)
System match: PLAY UNDER in NYY-LAD (o/u at 8.5)

WORLD SERIES System #6:
The World Series Game 1 home teams are on a 9-4 run (69.2%, +3.8 units, 29.2% ROI)
System match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-130 vs. NYY)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying games are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, which details eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based on notable stats they collected in their previous match

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it no longer matters whether the team plays at home or away. If they scored 9 runs or more in the previous match, they post a winning record of 1694-1598 (51.5%), but the oddsmaker’s overpricing has resulted in a loss of -217.80 units. This represents an ROI of -6.6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of daily baseball betting.
System Matching (FADE): LA DODGERS (-130 vs. NYY)

Home teams that scored well in the last game are actually also a bad bet in the next game
Going back another season to 2018, home teams that finish a match in which they scored 5 points or more more often than not win at 3412-3012 (53.1%), but they are a loser for bettors at -484.73 units and an ROI of -7.5%.
System Matching (FADE): LA DODGERS (-130 vs. NYY)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying games are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, which details 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

NO QUALIFYING TIGHT GAMES TODAY

Today’s MLB strength ratings

The following MLB betting odds are from the current MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System match: NY YANKEES +110 (+21 difference)

TODAY’S TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORITELY UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System match: NYY LAD UNDER 8.5 (-0.6)

Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots for Teams

The following team situational MLB betting and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, which is updated daily.

(901) NEW YORK-AL (101-70) and (902) LOS ANGELES-NL (105-68)

Trend: NYY good record vs. RH starters (80-45, +12.62 units)
System match: PLAY NY YANKEES (+110 at LAD)

Trend: NYY has a solid 16-6 record as a road underdog this season
System match: PLAY NY YANKEES (+110 at LAD)

Trend: Under total is 7-14-1 this season, while NYY is a ROAD underdog
System match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u out of 8.5)

Trend: Road teams are 8-4 in the NYY-LAD series since 2016
System match: PLAY NY YANKEES (+110 at LAD)

Trend: LAD trending Over at night (78-45 O/H)
System match: PLAY OVER the total (o/h at 8.5)

Trend Spots for Pitcher Situational MLB Betting

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays show how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the past five years.

(901) NEW YORK-AL (101-70) and (902) LOS ANGELES-NL (105-68)
Trend: Jack Flaherty hasn’t been great in this postseason (15.1 IP, 12 ER, 7 BB)
System match: FADE LA DODGERS (-130 vs. NYY)