The NFL Rankings moving as we head towards November.

On Sunday, we saw a whole bunch of wild finishes. The Cleveland Browns pulled off the ultimate upset behind Jameis Winstondefeating the Baltimore Ravens, 29-24. In Jacksonville, the Green Bay Packers survived a furious rally from the Jaguars to win for the second consecutive week, 30-27, on a game-winning last-second kick.

The top teams also took care of business, including the Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills, with the latter winning comfortably on the road.

But what do the playoff races look like? We explain it all below.

Everything will be updated after Sunday night football And Monday night football games. Additional, all play-off odds are thanks to The Athletic’s model.

No. 1: Kansas City Chiefs

File: 7–0, first place, AFC West

Remaining opponents above .500: 6

Probability of the play-offs: 99%

The Chiefs handled the Raiders in Las Vegas and remain 2.5 games ahead of the Denver Broncos for the AFC West lead. Kansas City now comes home for a Monday night date with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers before playing host to Denver at Arrowhead Stadium.

No. 2: Houston Texans

File: 6–2, first place, AFC South

Remaining opponents above .500: 3

Probability of the play-offs: 96%

The Texans scored a huge victory on Sunday, defeating the Indianapolis Colts at NRG Stadium to secure a season win over the only AFC South rival within striking distance. Houston’s biggest concern now is chasing Kansas City and fending off the heavy-hitting Buffalo Bills.

No. 3: Buffalo Bills

File: 6–2, first place, AFC East

Remaining opponents above .500: 2

Probability of the play-offs: 98%

Buffalo defeated the Seahawks in Seattle and now comes home to face the Miami Dolphins (2-5) with few defensive chops. The Bills look like a top-five team in the league, led by an MVP favorite in Josh Allen.

No. 4: Pittsburgh Steelers

File: 5–2, first place, AFC North

Remaining opponents above .500: 5

Probability of the play-offs: 72%

The Steelers moved into first place in the AFC North due to the Baltimore Ravens’ loss to the Cleveland Browns. Pittsburgh plays at home against the New York Giants on Monday evening.

No. 5: Denver Broncos

File: 5–3, second place, AFC West
Remaining opponents above .500: 5
Probability of the play-offs: 45%

Denver could be the surprise of the season. Bo Nix has played better in recent weeks and the Broncos defense has been elite. If Denver can go to Baltimore and win in Week 9, that’s a statement and then some.

No. 6: Baltimore Ravens

File: 5–3, second place, AFC North

Remaining opponents above .500: 6

Probability of the play-offs: 91%

The Ravens looked like perhaps the best team in football, then watched Jameis Winston shred their defense for 333 passing yards in a 29-24 loss. Baltimore will host the Denver Broncos in a key AFC game on Sunday.

No. 7: Los Angeles Chargers

File: 4–3, third place, AFC West

Remaining opponents above .500: 4

Probability of the play-offs: 78%

The Chargers are limited offensively, but they play good defense and have an elite quarterback in Justin Herbert. In the AFC wildcard race, that could be enough to clinch a spot.

Indianapolis Colts (4–4): Indianapolis has a major problem at quarterback. Joe Flacco is better than Anthony Richardson, but he’s also an aging veteran. Richardson is theoretically the future, but he completes less than half of his attempts. Shane Steichen has a tough decision to make, and soon.

Cincinnati Bengals (3–5): Cincinnati can’t stop anyone and has to give up another 37 points to the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday. Next week it’s the Raiders coming to the Queen City in a must-win game.

Miami Dolphins (2–5): The Dolphins controlled their game on Sunday, but somehow lost at Arizona’s cannon. Now Miami heads to Buffalo, a place that has been a horror show for the Dolphins in recent years.

No. 1: Detroit Lions

File: 6–1, first place, NFC North

Remaining opponents above .500: 7

Probability of the play-offs: 95%

The Lions led the Tennessee Titans by 52 points in an easy win, despite Jared Goff throwing for less than 100 yards. Detroit has a tough schedule ahead of it, but is also the NFC favorite by a wide margin.

No. 2: Washington commanders

File: 6–2, second place, NFC East

Remaining opponents above .500: 4

Probability of the play-offs: 78%

The Commanders seemed to have a ticket to the wild card portion of this play, and then Jayden Daniels connected with a last-second, game-winning 52-yard touchdown pass to Noah Brown. Sometimes a team just has magic.

No. 3: Atlanta Falcons

File: 5–3, first place, NFC South

Remaining opponents above .500: 5

Probability of the play-offs: 86%

Atlanta went into Tampa Bay and defeated the banged-up Buccaneers, with Kirk Cousins ​​throwing for four touchdowns. The Falcons host Dak Prescott and the Cowboys in Week 9.

No. 4: Arizona Cardinals

File: 4–4, first place, NFC West

Remaining opponents above .500: 2

Probability of the play-offs: 30%

Who would have guessed that the Cardinals would have the lead in the NFC West after eight games? Still, Arizona has found a way, beating the Chargers and Dolphins on last-second field goals over the past six days, putting them in a great position.

No. 5: Green Bay Packers

File: 6–2, second place, NFC North

Remaining opponents above .500: 4

Probability of the play-offs: 76%

Green Bay is clearly concerned about Jordan Love’s health, but the Packers appear to be a strong contender. After beating the Jacksonville Jaguars, Green Bay will take on the Lions at Lambeau Field in a first-place showdown.

No. 6: Minnesota Vikings

File: 5–2, third place, NFC North

Remaining opponents above .500: 5

Probability of the play-offs: 75%

Minnesota has lost two straight after the bye week, and the Vikings are now without star forward Christian Darrisaw for the year with a torn ACL and MCL. Minnesota hosts the Colts on Sunday night in what is suddenly a very important game for both teams.

No. 7: Philadelphia Eagles

File: 5–2, second place, NFC East

Remaining opponents above .500: 4

Probability of the play-offs: 84%

Beating the Bengals puts the Eagles right offensively, especially in the passing game. Philadelphia still has questions on both sides of the ball, but the Eagles are 5-2 with the lowly Jaguars on deck.

Chicago Bears (4–3): What a brutal loss for Washington. The Bears have a tough slate ahead of them, and Chicago is in great shape, falling out of the playoffs after a Hail Mary.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4–4): The Buccaneers are on a two-game losing streak, without Mike Evans or Chris Godwin, and then have the Chiefs and 49ers.

Dallas Cowboys (3–3): The Cowboys take on the 49ers Sunday night football. We will update after the game is finalized.