Without exaggeration, tonight is the dawn of a new era in Paris. For the first time since 2003, a Ballon d’Or will be awarded, with Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo not on the shortlist. A first winner of the most coveted individual prize in football is guaranteed.

Father Time has decided it is the next generation’s turn and new football stars will finally be anointed at a glitzy ceremony at the Theater du Chatelet in the French capital.

Vinicius Junior is the overwhelming favorite after his brilliant 2023/24 season with Real Madrid. Supporters at the Bernabeu repeatedly sang “Ballon d’Or, Vinicius Ballon d’Or” after the 24-year-old scored a hat-trick in a 5-2 win over Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League last week. repeat of the June final, when he also found the net in a 2-0 win.

Real Madrid manager Carlo Ancelotti needed no further convincing. “Vinicius Jr will win the Ballon d’Or in my opinion,” he told reporters after last week’s hat-trick. “He gets the prize.”

That is the expectation of most observers, but its competitors also have their own claims. Manchester City’s sidelined midfielder Rodri powered Spain to victory at the 2024 European Championship and Jude Bellingham’s decorated debut campaign at Real Madrid also earned worldwide praise.

It means we will almost certainly have a Ballon d’Or winner in their 20s for the first time since 2015. Closing the book on Messi and Ronaldo offers the opportunity for a new figure to be elevated to the most elite level. The football world will be watching, as will those eager to join the next big thing.

“Commercially it will be a bit of a statement,” says Owen Laverty, Chief Innovation Officer at Ear to the Ground, a leading sports and entertainment marketing agency based in Manchester.

“The 2026 World Championship (in the United States, Canada and Mexico) will be big from a commercial perspective and all the orders we receive as an organization ask who the horses are that they should support. This is the first indicator of that, a shift from the previous era.”

Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo at the Ballon d’Or gala in 2015 (Philipp Schmidli/Getty Images)

Winning the Ballon d’Or comes with no direct financial reward (no prize money is offered), but it serves as an emphatic statement of support, a surefire way to elevate their image. This inevitably leads to better sponsorship deals and greater interest.

Tonight’s winner will in all likelihood be assured of a long-ago agreed upon windfall. Boot deals for top-level players typically include a clause that is triggered if they win the Ballon d’Or, a mutually beneficial arrangement that acts as a toast to success. Memorabilia packages will also suddenly have greater value when signed by the best player in the world.

“Most players will have a clause in their shoe contract that if they win the Ballon d’Or they will get a big bonus from it,” says Ehsen Shah, CEO of B-Engaged, an international sports marketing agency.

‘That will be the only commercial deal where winning the Ballon d’Or absolutely gives you this, but you will get other endorsement deals where your value increases.

“The companies that sign you will pay more for you because you are considered the best player in the world. Everyone wants the best player in signed shoes or shirts in the world.

“They are the only two directly affected by it, and everyone else is subjective as to whether or not a brand suits that person because of what they have achieved.

“There is no chronological way to say that Pepsi, for example, will only go for the Ballon d’Or winner. You can try to demand more in the market, but you can only ask for what the brands are willing to pay. Has anyone been so influenced by the Ballon d’Or? That is subjective.”

And largely untested. Only Luka Modric (2018) and Karim Benzema (2022) have broken the duopoly of Messi and Ronaldo since the latter won the first of his five trophies as a Manchester United player in 2008. Vinicius Jr, already a poster boy for Nike, is ready to be the next test case.

“The big unknown being talked about is the commercial impact of winning it,” says Laverty. “We believe it makes a difference, but it has not yet been tested.

“In the last 15 years we have only had two players who were not Messi or Ronaldo. Benzema won that, but was then unable to play in the 2022 World Cup and went to Saudi Arabia. There was a burst of commercial interest in him, but it disappeared so quickly that it’s hard to prove that theory.

“Where there is clearly commercial impact is the Ballon d’Or Feminin (the women’s prize). People don’t know the players that well and they almost have to be told who is the best.

“It was a very useful tool in the marketing and branding world because it was a shortcut. Aitana Bonmati (last year’s winner) immediately became a name that people wanted to be involved with.”

Bonmati won the award last year (Franck Fife/AFP/Getty Images)

The reality is that the best male footballers, such as Vinicius Jr, Rodri, Bellingham, Kylian Mbappe, Erling Haaland and Lamine Yamal, already have a well-stocked roster of brand partnerships. Since they’ve gotten this far in their careers, several seven-figure deals have been made. Their faces are already familiar.

However, the Ballon d’Or can still make a difference.

“If you were to work with the Ballon d’Or winner, you would want to increase commercial deals by at least 25 to 50 percent,” Shah adds. “It’s best to connect with the story you’re working with, and that’s all supported by a prize. LeBron James has done that very well over the years (in the NBA). Its brand partners join that elite, record-breaking GOAT marketing.”

The Ballon d’Or became a very different trophy to chase in the era of Messi and Ronaldo. It has always been a valuable prize, dating back to its first winner in 1956, Englishman Stanley Matthews at the ripe old age of 41, but its significance has increased in an era defined by two ruthless individuals.

Messi and Ronaldo won thirteen of the fifteen Ballons d’Or between 2008 and 2023 and that rivalry has left a lasting impact.

“The cult of personality is stronger than ever before,” says sports marketing expert Ged Colleypriest. “The rise of the Ballon d’Or coincides with the age of social media, the ongoing debate over who is the GOAT. The Ballon d’Or has become confirmation of this.

“It is used to compare individuals and it has become much bigger in this age of social media where we feel the need to say who is better than someone else. Whether you agree with the outcome or not, the Ballon d’Or has become part of the conversation.

“We have now reached the post-Messi and Ronaldo era and that creates some intrigue among the new pretenders to the throne.”

Messi and Ronaldo have undeniably made the Ballon d’Or a success. Or at least more than before.

Mbappe has spoken openly about his ambition to win the big trophy and some major transfers, such as Anthony Martial’s move from Monaco to Manchester United in 2015, have included an additional clause if the player wins a Ballon d’Or.

The title itself, French for ‘golden ball’, has entered football jargon. Experts speak of an elusive, mythical Ballon d’Or level, sparking a debate about a player’s capabilities. TNT’s Rio Ferdinand chose to simply repeat the name of the award nine times when Vinicius Jr. scored in the Champions League final at Wembley in a 30-second clip that would later go viral.

Anyone watching that Vinicius Jnr performance… pic.twitter.com/Gsy4t4SbY2

— Football on TNT Sports (@footballontnt) October 22, 2024

It’s hard to imagine anyone having the same immediate thoughts about Zinedine Zidane as they did when he won the World Cup with France in 1998, but football’s focus is increasingly on the individual.

“Twenty years ago, if we were having a conversation and talking about the greatest players of all time, we would mention the number of titles they won,” says Laverty.

“I’m not sure we would have ever said, ‘And he’s got three Ballon d’Ors and he’s only got one.’ That’s always been NBA and NFL parlance. You’d say a player had X titles and X MVPs and then stack that up. This is becoming increasingly common in football with the Ballon d’Or.

“All the research we’ve done is that it will continue to evolve towards the NFL/NBA model, where personal stats and accolades become very important because it shows success for that person. The Ballon d’Or is important for younger fans.”

The shift is also important. A new MVP in American sports can strengthen commercial power overnight and those prizes traditionally count for much more than a Ballon d’Or. The subtle change in football, where players can be followed as closely as teams by younger supporters, means that individual awards provide greater validation. And while the Ballon d’Or has a greater significance for younger fans, it also applies to brands with major partnerships in mind.

“When you get the MVP in the NBA, there’s a whole different influx in the way brands perceive you,” Shah says. “In NBA culture, the broadcast is on and every commercial break has an NBA player there. We don’t necessarily have that culture in Europe.

“The market is now moving. You have Mbappe with a good selection of brands, Bellingham with a good selection of brands, Vinicius and Yamal. Their commercial work is already done.

“These brands are all counting on that player becoming a Ballon d’Or winner.”

Don’t write off Messi and Ronaldo, football’s commercial giants, especially as neither is ruling out a last dance at the 2026 World Cup. Still, the name read out in Paris tonight will provide the strongest indication yet of where the line of succession will lead.

GO DEEPER

Who should win the Ballon d’Or for men: Rodri or Vinicius Junior?

(Top photos: Getty Images; design: Eamonn Dalton)