The chance that a worrying area in the Caribbean Sea will develop into Tropical Storm Patty later this week has risen to 40 percent.

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is still over a month away and the next storm will be named Patty. It follows Hurricane Oscar, which hit Cuba last week.

National Hurricane Center meteorologists are monitoring an area of ​​concern in the Caribbean Sea. Over the weekend, the system had a small chance of forming within seven days, but the chance has now increased to moderate, according to the latest NHC forecast.

“Within a few days, a broad area of ​​low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea,” the forecast said. “Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this week or weekend as the system begins to drift northward or northeastward over the southwestern and central Caribbean Sea.”

The NHC posted on X, formerly Twitter, that the monitored system would not pose a threat to the United States for the next seven days.

NHC hurricane specialist Andrew Hagen shared Newsweek that the system will likely still be in the Caribbean next week. If the storm develops and moves further north, it could be pulled apart by strong wind shear in the area.

“If this system moves too far north, it will be difficult to strengthen further,” Hagen said.

Normally, storms that form this late in the season move west over Central America, as Tropical Storm Nadine did last week, or east toward Cuba. AccuWeather senior meteorologist Alex DaSilva said earlier Newsweek that based on current atmospheric conditions, he doubts the next storm will move westward if it forms.

Given the NHC forecast, the storm would likely move north or northeast. While it’s too early to predict an official path, DaSilva said it’s possible the storm could target Florida and affect western or southern parts of the state. Florida has recently experienced major hurricanes, with Helene in late September and Milton in early October.

However, Hagen said the system does not pose a threat to Florida at this time.

The NHC is not monitoring any other systems in the Atlantic Ocean as of Monday morning.

Should it occur, Tropical Storm Patty will be the 16th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season.

In May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released a forecast predicting 17 to 25 named storms with winds of 39 miles per hour or higher. In August, the agency adjusted its forecast slightly and now expects 17 to 24 this season.