North Carolina voters are likely to put former President Trump ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential election, according to a new Fox News poll. That has remained unchanged since September.

Trump has a 49% to 47% lead among likely voters, while third-party candidates receive 4%. In the two-way battle, his lead narrows to 1 point — a useful indicator because pre-election surveys often exaggerate support for third-party candidates.

Within the larger universe of registered voters, Harris is 1 point higher on both the expanded ballot (48%-47%) and head-to-head (50%-49%).

The differences between Harris and Trump on all voting tests are within the margin of error.

The previous Fox News survey of North Carolina voters, released in September, also found that Trump was only slightly favored among likely voters, and Harris was narrowly ahead among registered voters.

Looking at the results of the full ballot among likely voters, Trump is favored among whites without a college degree, white voters in general, rural voters and voters 65 and older.

Harris is favored among black voters, urban voters, voters with a college degree and voters under 35. She also has a narrow lead among suburban voters, driven by her larger margin among suburban women than Trump’s lead among suburban men.

FOX NEWS POLL: MORE HARRIS THAN TRUMP SUPPORTS THINK VOTERS WILL BE COUNTED ACCURATELY AND ACCEPT THE OUTCOME

Trump is meeting or exceeding his 2020 numbers among these groups, while Harris’ support trails what President Biden received among Black, young and suburban voters, according to the North Carolina Fox News Voter Analysis election poll.

There is a 20-point gender gap, as men support Trump by 13 points and women support Harris by 7 points.

The former president is helped by North Carolina having more voters who make up his base. More people identify as Republican than as Democrat, fewer have a college degree, and there are far more voters in rural areas than in cities.

Trump has won the Tar Heel State twice: in 2016 by almost 4 percentage points and in 2020 by just over 1 point. Over the past two decades, former President Obama was the only Democrat to win North Carolina, and in 2008 it was by less than half a point.

“Whoever wins North Carolina will likely do two things: win the suburbs with a stronger closing message and maximize turnout in their base areas,” said Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, who conducts Fox News polls with Republican Daron Shaw.

When likely voters are asked who they trust to handle the most important issues, they favor Trump on immigration (by 17 points), the conflict in the Middle East (+10) and the economy (+6) . Harris is favored on election integrity (+4) and abortion (+12).

About 14% of Harris’ supporters trust Trump on immigration, while 11% of those who support Trump trust Harris on abortion.

By a five-point margin, more voters see Trump as a strong leader, while more voters say Harris has the right temperament to be president, by a five-point margin. There are smaller differences when it comes to helping the middle class (Harris +3), protecting American democracy (Harris +3), fighting for people like you (Harris +1), bringing needed change (Trump +2) and saying what they believe instead of what will get them elected (Trump +3).

More Trump supporters (75%) than Harris supporters (71%) say they are very interested in the election, while more than 9 in 10 backers of each candidate say they are confident in their vote choice.

By a four-point margin, more voters view both Harris and Trump negatively than positively: 48% favorable versus 52% unfavorable of both. By comparison, President Biden’s personal rating is 13 points underwater (43%-56%).

Harris is 2 points higher than the 4 in 10 who say they have already voted (50%-48%). Overall, voters who say they will cast their ballots early are 1 point in Trump’s favor, while among those who plan to vote on Election Day he is 7 points ahead.

In the race for governor, Democrat Josh Stein leads Republican Mark Robinson by 16 points, 57%-41%.

Support for Stein outperforms support for Harris, as 14% of those who support him also favor Trump in the presidential race.

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“Despite having a struggling gubernatorial candidate on board and mobilizing voters in hurricane-devastated areas, Trump continues to gain a slim lead by generating enthusiastic support among key Republican constituencies,” Shaw notes.

Poll pourri

Among the larger sample of registered voters…

– Harris receives slightly more support among Democrats (95%) than Trump receives from Republicans (93%), and also narrowly wins over independents (46% versus Trump’s 41%, within the margin of error).

– While Trump has the support of 76% of non-MAGA Republicans, Harris gets 17%, while another 5% prefer a third-party candidate (too few to break through among the likely voter pool ).

– Trump’s advantage has narrowed to just 3 percentage points on handling the economy, down from a seven-point lead last month and a nine-point lead in August.

– Just as many voters say they are financially stable and that they are falling behind (44% each), while only 1 in 10 feel their family is improving. These figures have remained unchanged since February, despite major flooding and damage from Hurricane Helene in September.

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This Fox News Poll, conducted October 24-28 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), features interviews with a sample of 1,113 registered voters in North Carolina, randomly selected from a voter base across the entire state. Respondents spoke to live interviewers on landlines (164) and mobile phones (685) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (264). Results based on the full registered voter sample and the subsample of 872 likely voters have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and region variables to ensure that respondent demographics are representative of the registered voter population. Likely voters are based on a probabilistic statistical model that relies on past voting history, interest in the current election, age, education, race, ethnicity, church attendance and marital status.

Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.