A slew of new polls show Vice President Kamala Harris taking a narrow lead over former President Trump in the ‘blue wall’. Many prognosticators say she must win to clinch the presidency.

Marist polls in the battlegrounds of Michigan and Pennsylvania released Friday show the Democratic vice president leading her Republican rival by 2 points in each state, 50% to 48%. A third poll of Wisconsin voters shows Harris with a 3 percentage point lead, 51%-48%.

All of these results are within the Marist polls’ margins of error, plus or minus 3.4 points for the Michigan and Pennsylvania polls and plus or minus 3.5 points for the Wisconsin poll. The surveys were conducted from October 27 to 30.

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Stickers and a sign supporting presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris are displayed Thursday outside the Bucks County Administration’s on-demand voting and ballot drop-off center building in Doylestown, Pennsylvania. (Ed Jones/AFP)

The numbers point toward another historically close election next Tuesday after the 2020 cycle, when just 44,000 votes spread across key battleground states gave President Biden the Electoral College votes he needed to dethrone Trump. Similarly, Trump captured the White House in 2016 by just under 78,000 votes in the three “blue wall” states.

Harris’s narrow lead is attributed to independent voters, who appear to be moving in her direction in the final days of the election. Harris opened a six-point lead over Trump among independents in Michigan, 52%-46%, improving from a two-point lead in September. They also improved from a four-point lead over the Wisconsin independents in early September to a six-point lead at the end of October.

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Vice President Kamala Harris speaks Monday at a campaign rally in Ann Arbor, Michigan. (Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

The most dramatic shift, however, is in Pennsylvania, where Marist finds a 19-point shift among independents, with Harris at 55% and Trump at 40%, compared to September, when Trump led Harris among independents 49%-45% .

“The Keystone State is the biggest prize of the three highly competitive so-called Blue Wall states,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. “The good news for Harris is that she is doing stronger among independent and white voters than Biden was four years ago. The bad news is that the gender gap here is not as wide as it was in 2020, or in fact, where it is elsewhere now. .”

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Former President Trump gestures after speaking at a campaign rally at the Resch Center in Green Bay, Wisconsin, Wednesday. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

More surveys released Friday show a tight race.

A new USA Today/Suffolk poll shows Harris and Trump tied in Pennsylvania with 49% of the vote each, according to a statewide poll of 500 likely voters conducted Oct. 27-30, with a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.

David Paleologos, director of the University of Suffolk’s Political Research Center, called the race a “toss-up.”

“We have all the results within the margin of error… it’s basically a statistical relationship,” Paleologos said, according to USA Today.

Additionally, the latest Detroit Free Press poll of likely voters in Michigan shows Harris with a 3 percentage point lead over Trump, boosted by support from women and black voters, although the margin is still within the plus or minus 4 point range of the poll. wrong.

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The Rust Belt states that make up the Democratic Party’s “blue wall” are worth a combined 44 Electoral College votes. Pennsylvania is the biggest prize with 19 votes, Michigan has 15 and Wisconsin has 10.

If Harris can win Pennsylvania and another “blue wall” state, Trump would have to beat the other swing states, including the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, to win the White House.

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