Amid warmer than average fall temperatures, snow levels in Colorado are above normal.

Snowpack, also called snow-water equivalent, is a measure of the amount of liquid water contained in the state’s snowfields – a key indicator of drought and seasonal runoff.

As of Friday, Nov. 1, statewide snowpack was 143% of the 30-year average, which is considered historically normal, according to data from the Natural Resources Conservation Service.

Still, Colorado still has a long way to go before experts know how this season’s snowpack will perform compared to previous years. Snowpack typically begins building in mid-October and peaks around early April.

“Just like in football, we are early in the first quarter. … We still have a lot of season ahead of us,” said Matthew Aleksa, forecaster with the National Weather Service in Grand Junction. “But we’re off to a good start.”

Recent storms have brought cooler weather to mountain areas and the western slopes, where temperatures were about 15 degrees above normal in some places during the first half of October, Aleksa said. Most of the snowfall is concentrated in the San Juans region, where the two most recent storms that hit in late October produced between 3 and 20 feet of fresh powder.

Snow cover levels for the river basins in that area are well above 200% of normal, pushing up the state’s total numbers. But in the eastern part of the state, persistent dry weather has hampered snowpack.

In the South Platte River Basin, which stretches along the Front Range from Fort Collins to Castle Rock, snowpack was 43% of normal on Friday. In the Arkansas River Basin, which spans the south-central part of the state, the level was 84%.

But looking at statewide data, “We’re pretty close to where we would normally be this time of year, maybe a little above,” Aleksa said.

But that can change quickly depending on storm patterns, and even a brief spell of drier weather could cause snow levels to plummet.

“The benefit of the latest (storm) systems is that it has helped bring our temperatures from well above normal to near or even slightly below normal,” Aleksa said. “Needless to say, it looks like we will see more mountain snow and cooler conditions late this weekend and into next week… (and) these systems will help amplify the cold air and keep these temperatures lower.”

Forecasts from OpenSnow.com show a fairly active start to November, with the next storm arriving sometime on Sunday afternoon. About 8 inches of snowfall could be possible near and east of the Continental Divide, although areas as far west as Berthoud Pass could also see similar amounts.

In a blog post from FridayOpenSnow founder meteorologist Joel Gratz wrote: “The longer-term prospects are all good news. Some early seasons are warm and leave us waiting for winter to arrive, but it looks like we will be on the storm train for the first half of November with a few storms per week.”

The Climate Prediction Center’s monthly outlook for November shows even odds that Colorado will see above or below normal temperatures and precipitation. The quarterly forecast for November, December and January shows Colorado’s mountain areas have a slight chance of above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation.

With recent storms favoring the southwestern corner of the state, Aleksa said patterns could shift toward the central and northern mountains as La Nina conditions continue to develop.

La Nina, an atmospheric pattern driven by temperature changes in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, is generally characterized by steeper, cooler weather in the north and drier, warmer weather in the south. During the 2023-2024 winter season, the opposite pattern, El Nino, was present, which could have a reverse effect.

Neither pattern has historically had a strong impact on Colorado’s snow season, but it is possible that some effects could emerge later in the winter.

“It looks like the southern mountains are seeing more snow now,” Aleksa said. “But that could change early in the new year as the northern mountains see more.”