Editor’s note: This piece was written after Cook Political Report noted on its website that Colorado’s 4th Congressional District has been moved to “lean Republican.”

The political forecaster has since corrected an error in the original update. Cook predicts a better chance of a Democratic victory in Colorado’s third congressional district, Boebert’s old district — and not in the fourth congressional district, where she is now running.

Boebert won the 3rd District in 2022 by just 546 votes. Her then Democratic challenger, Adam Frisch, will face Republican Jeff Hurd again this election.

Could Rep. Lauren Boebert actually lose her seat in the House? Recent opinion polls show that this is possible.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report reported Friday that Boebert has lost ground in Colorado’s 4th Congressional District, moving the race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.” While the MAGA Republican still has a slight lead, that appears to be largely due to the heavily Republican makeup of the district, rather than any tactful campaigning by Boebert.

The Republican congresswoman narrowly held on to her seat in Colorado’s third congressional district in 2022, winning by just 546 votes. After that narrow victory, and after she became the center of a national scandal for her behavior during a performance of Beetle juiceBoebert made a surprise move to the neighboring 4th District.

She wants to fill the Republican seat Representative Ken Buck who retired this year. At the time of her announcement, Buck didn’t have many kind words for Boebert, who he said made “George Santos look like a saint.”

On Tuesday, Boebert will face off against Democrat Trisha Calvaresea first candidate who has attacked the Republican about IVF and veterans’ rights.

And while Republicans make up nearly 34 percent of registered active voters in the conservative stronghold — while Democrats retain just 15 percent of the electorate — Boebert has not. universally embraced in Colorado’s 4th.

“As a Christian, I don’t appreciate how people who say they are Christian get your vote and then turn out to be a lowlife, and now I just consider her a lowlife,” said one voter. The Wall Street Journal earlier this year. While some Republicans said they would hold their noses despite Boebert’s “antics” just to avoid voting Democrat; that may not be the case for everyone.