Despite long lines to vote and higher-than-normal in-person early voting numbers in the first days after polls opened, local political analysts on both sides of the aisle say turnout in Bexar County is actually falling short of expectations for a high-profile presidential election.

Rapid population growth has led to an increase in the number of registered voters in Bexar County, and the first day of in-person early voting was 40% higher than the first day of early voting in 2020.

“It’s exciting because we’re breaking records in terms of numbers,” said Laura Barberena, a San Antonio political consultant who owns the firm Viva Politics. “But usually in politics we don’t look at raw numbers, but at percentages.”