Democratic candidates statewide maintain the lead over Republican candidates

The latest surveys from Emerson College Polling/The Hill Swing State continue to show the race is too close to call. In Michigan, Vice President Harris has a two-point lead over former President Trump, 50% to 48%. The race is even in Nevada and Wisconsin, with 48% in Nevada and 49% in Wisconsin. Trump has a one-point lead in Georgia (50% to 49%), North Carolina (49% to 48%) and Pennsylvania (49% to 48%). In Arizona, Trump has a two-point lead, 50% to 48%. All polls are within each survey’s margin of error.

“The gender gap on the ballot continues to sharply divide voting intentions,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “In Michigan, where Harris has an edge over Trump, and Wisconsin, men and women are moving in opposite directions: men for Trump at age 12, and women for Harris at 11. In states where Trump has a narrow lead, such as North Carolina and Pennsylvania, men support Trump by a larger margin than women support Harris.”

Gender gap

• Arizona: Men break for Trump by seven points (53% to 46%), while women break for Harris by two points (50% to 48%).
• Georgia: Men break for Trump by 16 (58% to 42%), women break for Harris by 12 (55% to 43%).
• Michigan: Men break for Trump by 12 (55% to 43%), women break for Harris by 11 (55% to 44%).
• In Nevada, men break nine for Trump (53% to 44%), while women break six for Harris (51% to 45%).
• North Carolina: Men break for Trump by nine (53% to 44%), while women break for Harris by five (52% to 47%).
• Pennsylvania: Men break for Trump by 17 (58% to 41%), women break for Harris by 13 (55% to 42%).
• Wisconsin: Men break for Trump by 12 (55% to 43%) and women break for Harris by 11 (55% to 44%).

Statewide elections

• Arizona US Senate, 50% support Democrat Ruben Gallego, 45% support Kari Lake. Five percent have not yet made a decision.
  • Gallego’s support held steady since last month, while Lake’s support rose two points, from 43% to 45%.

• Michigan U.S. Senate: 49% support Democrat Elissa Slotkin, 45% support Republican Mike Rogers, and 6% are undecided.
  • Slotkin’s support held steady since the last Michigan poll, while Rogers’ support rose from 44% to 45%.

• Nevada U.S. Senate: 50% support incumbent Democrat Jacky Rosen, 44% support Republican Sam Brown, 3% plan not to vote for either candidate, and 3% are undecided.

• North Carolina Governor: 52% support Democrat Josh Stein, 40% support Republican Mark Robinson, 4% plan to support someone else and 4% are undecided.
  • Since the last poll of the gubernatorial race, Stein and Robinson’s support have both risen by one point.
  • Just over 1 in 10 (11%) of Trump voters also support Stein on the ballot in North Carolina, the highest percentage of split-ticket votes among swing states.

• Pennsylvania US Senate: 47% support incumbent Democrat Bob Casey, 47% support Republican David McCormick, 6% are undecided.
  • Since October, support for McCormick has increased by one point, while support for Casey remained at 47%.

• Wisconsin US Senate: 51% support incumbent Democrat Tammy Baldwin, 45% support Republican Eric Hovde, 4% are undecided.
  • This has changed since the last Emerson poll, with the race tied at 48% each: Baldwin has taken three points while Hovde has lost three points.

Abortion on the ballot

In Arizona, 57% of voters plan to vote in favor of Arizona Proposition 239, a constitutional amendment that would provide a fundamental right to abortion until fetal viability, or approximately the 24th week of pregnancy. Thirty-six percent plan to vote against, and 7% are undecided.

• Of voters who support the constitutional amendment to guarantee the right to abortion, 76% support Harris and 23% support Trump. Of voters who plan to vote no, 92% support Trump and 7% support Harris.

Similarly, in Nevada, 56% plan to support the state’s constitutional amendment providing a fundamental right to abortion, while 35% oppose it and 9% are unsure.

METHODOLOGY

The sample size for Arizona is n=900, with a credibility interval comparable to a poll’s margin of error of +/-3.2%. The sample size for Michigan is n=790, with a credibility interval of +/-3.4%. The sample size for North Carolina is n=860 with a credibility interval of +/-3.3%. The sample size for Nevada is n=840, with a credibility interval of +/-3.3%. The sample size for Pennsylvania is n=1,000, with a credibility interval of +/-3%. The sample size for Wisconsin is n=800, with a credibility interval of +/-3.4%

The data was weighted by statewide voter parameters, including gender, age, race/ethnicity, partisan affiliation/registration, education, and voter registration/turnout data by state.

The survey was administered by contacting respondents’ mobile phones via MMS-to-Web and landlines via Interactive Voice Response with Aristotle respondents, along with an online panel from CINT. The surveys were presented in English. Data was collected between October 30 and November 2, 2024. The surveys were conducted by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Nexstar Media.

It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry higher credibility intervals as the sample size decreases. Poll results should be understood within the range of the poll’s scores, and with a 95% confidence interval, a poll should fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.

FULL RESULTS