Red Bulls disrupted the advance of Columbus and Seattle

In one of the most shocking results in playoff history, New York outlasted Columbus in penalty kicks, eliminating the Crew for the second straight game and advancing to the Eastern Conference semifinals. They will face the winner of Cincinnati-New York City. Meanwhile, out west, Seattle was pushed into penalty kicks by Houston for the second straight game. They are waiting for the winner of LAFC-Vancouver.

The Whitecaps scored twice within the first 15 minutes as they rolled to a 3-0 victory over LAFC. The series now returns to LA for Game 3. Kickoff takes place on Friday evening at 11pm ET (MLS Season Pass).

Higher seeds have never felt so safe. Let’s talk it out.

If you had asked me to rank every match in the Audi 2024 MLS Cup Playoffs based on their likelihood of upset, this one might have been the last. It’s not just that the Red Bulls are famous for their lack of play-off success and it’s not just the fact that they’re up against a team that has made every final possible in the past year. Mostly the fact that New York had put up 0.67 points per game over the last nine games of the season. Only Chicago had a worse form after the Leagues Cup.

It doesn’t get much better when you look at what the Red Bulls did halfway through the season. They earned just 1.06 points per game during that stretch, the worst mark of any playoff team.

Well, first of all, like a top-three mistake in MLS history. I don’t have the depth of knowledge like some other people who have been watching the MLS since the Tampa Bay Mutiny, but I struggle to remember a more shocking outcome.

That said, we had talked a few times about how the Red Bulls’ underlying numbers suggested they were actually much better than their record. We had talked a few times about how a healthy Emil Forsberg could be the missing ingredient for this team. We never considered that this meant they could stay with the Crew for three games.

But to be fair, that disastrous run after the Leagues Cup? They averaged 1.66 expected points per game during that stretch. Only Portland, Orlando and Columbus had better underlying numbers. The second half of the season? They averaged 1.64 expected points per game. Only LAFC had better underlying figures.

The problem was that this team had given us no reason to believe them. That’s not just this year; last year they also had excellent underlying figures. It didn’t mean much. And for half a season it hadn’t meant much. Even with Forsberg returning after a long absence, it wouldn’t have been rational to think that this team would suddenly have the ability to take down an all-time great MLS side.

For a moment it really looked like they wouldn’t. When the Crew scored too late to equalize, everyone thought the same: that’s so Metro. It was also extremely Columbus. There were no surprises. But the penalty shootout had a few surprises in store. The Crew planned to put that aside and take this series back to Columbus, but Carlos Coronel came up big with a save. Then he did it two more times. The Red Bulls somehow overcame their demons against a team that refused to die.

That doesn’t mean they’ll win the MLS Cup for the first time or anything, but we’re not going to deny any Red Bulls fan the catharsis of this moment. Either way, they can sit back and enjoy being on the other side of a Metro Moment.

In the meantime, the crew will have to do an autopsy. I’ll be honest: I’m not sure we’ll learn anything other than “sometimes the ball goes in.” But that doesn’t change the fact that we just saw the door close on one of the most impressive teams ever. What if this is the last we see of Cucho Hernández? What if that’s the last we see of Wilfried Nancy? There is a small but real chance that this offseason will be transformative for Columbus. That possibility always existed. Now it just exists with a much more disappointing ending than expected.

Finally someone has scored! Both times it happened to be Cristian Roldan!

It only took 177 minutes between these two before someone finally found the net. And it probably only happened because Houston went down to 10 men after a bizarre sequence in which Héctor Herrera was ejected for spitting at a referee.

Houston still found a way back into the match thanks to an own goal by Roldan. But in the end they weren’t lucky enough. Seattle advanced on penalties and that was that for the Dynamo this year. Herrera’s red card made it an unconscionable exit.

However, Seattle survived. In the next round they will face the winner of LAFC-Vancouver. At some point, they’re going to have to figure out at least a few things on offense if they want to move forward.

The Whitecaps have heard you (me) talking nonsense, I think. All credit, they’ve fully lived up to the moment twice now this postseason with their backs against the wall. That’s not their typical M.O., but this appears to be a ‘Caps side’ that’s built a little differently. They turned this game on its head from the jump and haven’t looked back. In two games where they have been on the brink of elimination, they have amassed an aggregate score of 8-0 in their favor.

They’re a good team that seems to have found some traction in the postseason. LAFC is in real danger here. They’re not playing bad, but they’re not playing their best ball either. It doesn’t help that Olivier Giroud is just staying there. Their ‘season-changing’ summer signing is still searching for his first MLS goal.

The Whitecaps have a real chance to pull off the biggest MLS disaster since, well, last night. Still, if they were to pull this off, it would be one of the most remarkable results in MLS history. All it takes is a draw and a penalty shootout. They are more than ready for this and they seem absolutely sick of the story surrounding them. A good team with a chip on their shoulder is scary.

Good luck there. Surprise a few people.