The 2024 presidential election is just one day away. And the latest batch of major national polls and swing state surveys show the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump as tight as it’s ever been.

Yahoo News/YouGov survey

According to the final Yahoo News/YouGov poll of the cycle, Trump and Harris are now tied nationally.

The three previous Yahoo News/YouGov surveys showed Harris with a slight lead over Trump among registered voters, ranging from one point after the Democratic National Convention in August to five points after their September 10 debate (when candidates from third parties were included). .

Now, Harris (47%) and Trump (47%) face the same question for the first time since Harris declared his candidacy on July 21.

The Iowa poll everyone is talking about

A new Des Moines Register poll, conducted Oct. 28 to 31 and released over the weekend, found Harris leading Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters in Iowa, a state not believed to be in play would be for the Democrats.

In June, the same poll showed Trump with an 18-point lead over President Biden. In September, it emerged that Trump had a four-point lead over Harris.

“It’s hard for anyone to say they saw this coming,” J. Ann Selzer, the pollster who conducted the survey, told the newspaper. “She has clearly achieved a leadership position.”

Trump dismissed the poll in a post on Truth Social, calling Selzer — a respected pollster who accurately predicted his victories in the Hawkeye State in 2016 and 2020 — a “Trump hater.”

National polls

Three websites that collect national and state surveys – the Silver Bulletin, FiveThirtyEight and the New York Times – currently have the national polling average as follows:

Silver Bulletin

• Harris: 48.5%

• Trump: 47.8%

FiveThirtyEight

• Harris: 47.9%

• Trump: 47.0%

New York Times

All three show Harris with a narrow lead in the popular vote of one percentage point or less – well within the overall margins of error.

Swing state polls

The same websites have the following polling averages in the seven battleground states:

Silver Bulletin

• Nevada: Trump 48.4% | Harris 48.0%

• Arizona: Trump 49.3% | Harris 46.7%

• Wisconsin: Harris48.6% | Trump 47.8%

• Michigan: Harris48.3% | Trump 47.2%

• Pennsylvania: Trump 48.4% | Harris 48.0%

• North Carolina: Trump 48.7% | Harris 47.6%

• Georgia: Trump 48.9% | Harris 47.6%

FiveThirtyEight

• Nevada: Trump 47.9% | Harris 47.3%

• Arizona: Trump 49.0% | Harris 46.5%

• Wisconsin: Harris48.2% | Trump 47.3%

• Michigan: Harris47.9% | Trump 47.1%

• Pennsylvania: Trump 47.9% | Harris 47.7%

• North Carolina: Trump 48.4% | Harris 47.2%

• Georgia: Trump 48.4% | Harris 47.2%

New York Times

• Nevada: Trump 49% | Harris 48%

• Arizona: Trump 50% | Harris 47%

• Wisconsin: Harris 49% | Trump 48%

• Michigan: Harris 49% | Trump 48%

• Pennsylvania: Trump 49% | Harris 48%

• North Carolina: Trump 48% | Harris 48%

• Georgia: Trump 49% | Harris 48%

“With one day left in the 2024 campaign, polls show one of the closest presidential elections in the history of American politics,” Nate Cohn, the Times’ chief researcher, wrote Monday. “In the history of modern polling, there has never been a race where the final polls showed such a close battle.”

Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania – the so-called Blue Wall for Democrats – are crucial for Harris. In 2016, Trump reversed all three, helping him win the presidency. In 2020, Biden recaptured all three, with Pennsylvania securing its victory.

These are just averages, not projections or racial calls. These are determined based on the votes actually cast on or before election day.