A hurricane warning has been issued for the Cayman Islands and reduced warnings for parts of Cuba and Jamaica, as a weather system monitored in the Caribbean developed into a tropical depression on Monday morning. The system was forecast to continue strengthening, the National Hurricane Center said, possibly becoming a tropical storm by the end of the day and a hurricane by Wednesday. If that happens, the storm would be named Rafael.

The hurricane center said in an advisory Monday that the system was expected to approach the northwestern part of Cuba around the time it reaches hurricane strength.

“On the forecast track, the system is expected to pass near Jamaica late tonight, near or above…
“It will reach the Cayman Islands on Tuesday and approach Cuba on Wednesday,” forecasters said. They wrote in an earlier advisory that the system “could be close to or at hurricane intensity as it passes the Cayman Islands and Cuba.”

As of 1:00 PM EST on Monday, the tropical depression was located approximately 200 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica and 270 miles southeast of Grand Cayman in the Cayman Islands. It was moving north at a speed of 15 km/h with maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h, the center reported.

The highest sustained winds were unchanged from an earlier reading recorded early Monday morning. Once they reach a speed of 62 km/h, the depression is considered a tropical storm. Maximum sustained winds of 75 mph are required to be classified as a hurricane.

The Miami-based hurricane center said the heaviest rainfall is expected to occur over Jamaica and parts of Cuba by mid-week. Precipitation will likely be associated with hurricane conditions in the Cayman Islands on Tuesday afternoon, and possibly in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions were expected to arrive in Jamaica Monday evening.

“Total rainfall amounts of between 7 and 15 centimeters are expected, with up to 25 centimeters locally. Flooding may occur in parts of Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible,” the center said.

Heavy rain will spread northward into Florida and adjacent areas of the southeastern United States by midweek, the center said.

CBS News meteorologist Nicolette Nolan says the system is expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico.

“Models disagree on where it will track after it reaches the Gulf,” Nolan says, “but the Gulf coasts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida should be alert for impacts late in the week.”