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The fire danger is increasing, rain during the week is unlikely

Vaseline October 15, 2024

The slim chance that some Bay Area regions will see rain this week is now all but eliminated, the National Weather Service said Tuesday.

At the same time, the agency said the more likely chance that dangerous fire conditions could develop has turned into a certainty.

Neither scenario will mean warmer weather.

“The rain we thought we were going to get was more in the North Bay, in Napa and Sonoma counties,” NWS meteorologist Alexis Clouser said Tuesday. “But right now we don’t even expect to see any traces of rain anywhere. The system just wasn’t strong enough. That said, the low pressure that would bring us rain will keep us at cooler temperatures.”

But while lower temperatures can keep that aspect of the weather comfortable, part of the low-pressure system is causing a lack of comfort elsewhere. Clouser said the system follows the state rather than moving across the ocean, a scenario expected to produce strong offshore winds.

In warmer conditions these can trigger a red flag warning of fire danger. This time, the weather service has issued a fire watch that starts Thursday and runs through Saturday evening. Wind gusts of up to 40 miles per hour are possible at higher elevations in the region, with isolated gusts of up to 50 miles per hour, according to the weather service.

“It is not the temperatures that we are so concerned about, but the wind at sea,” Clouser said. “That will dry out the grass fuels even more and the humidity will be critically low. It will be very windy and very dry.”

PG&E spokesperson Tamar Sarkissian said via email that the utility had not called for a public safety power shutoff as of Tuesday morning. Scheduled power outages often occur during hazardous fire conditions.

The utility opened its emergency operations center in Vacaville on Tuesday, and Sarkissian said conditions could create the need for a PSPS.

Safety officials urged residents to be cautious about fire conditions, urging them to cut back on defensible space in front of their homes and avoid activities that could cause a spark or heat up dry vegetation, such as mowing the lawn.

Temperatures expected to peak in the low 80s and high 70s in the hottest spots on Tuesday, while topping out around 70 degrees near the water, will likely drop a few degrees Wednesday and Thursday before rising again Friday . Areas near the coast could be 10 degrees warmer on Friday, but the hottest spots inland are expected to remain in the low to mid 80s.

“Once the wind dies down, it will be quite gentle,” Clouser said.

Originally published: October 15, 2024 at 7:42 am

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The fire danger is increasing, rain during the week is unlikely

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The fire danger is increasing, rain during the week is unlikely

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