Topline

In the seven swing states that are likely to decide the election on Tuesday, the timing of results will vary based on the laws in each state and the number of absentee votes – with the first indication of who could win likely towards the end of the Election Day will be when results are reported in Georgia and North Carolina, although final counts could take days or weeks.

Key facts

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When can we expect results in the seven swing states?

North Carolina: It will likely be among the first states called, as the vast majority of ballots are expected to be counted by midnight on Election Day, Jason Roberts, a political science professor at the University of North Carolina, told Fox Digital. Polls close relatively early, at 7:30 PM EST, and officials process absentee ballots once a week from October 1 through Election Day. They may begin counting absentee ballots between 9 a.m. and 5 p.m. on Election Day, but in-person early votes cannot be counted until the polls close.

Georgia: This state will also move quickly, with most votes being counted within hours after the polls close at 7:00 PM EST. Officials were allowed to begin processing mail-in ballots on the third Monday before Election Day, Oct. 21, and began counting them at 7 a.m. on Election Day. A new law passed this year requires counties to report the results of early and absentee voting by 8 p.m. on Election Day and to report the number of uncounted ballots by 10 p.m.

Wisconsin: The state can begin processing absentee ballots at 7 a.m. on Election Day, with polls closing at 9 p.m. EST. Election officials expect unofficial results late on Election Day or Wednesday, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported.

Michigan: Unofficial results are expected the day after the election, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson told reporters this week. Recent changes to election laws allow officials to start processing ballots earlier than in the past, which can speed up results: Cities and townships with a population of at least 5,000 residents can begin processing ballots eight days before the election in case of absence, between 7 a.m. and 8 p.m., while the entire state can begin processing ballots Monday morning before the election. Polls close at 8:00 PM EST in most of the state, but four counties in the Upper Peninsula are in the Central Time Zone and will continue voting until 9:00 PM EST.

Pennsylvania: The state may take longer than others to count ballots because election officials are prohibited from processing mail-in ballots until 7 a.m. on Election Day. Polls close at 8:00 PM EST. It could take several days for results to be tabulated, as in the 2020 election. Wait times could be shorter as fewer voters are expected to vote by mail than during the Covid-19 pandemic and some provinces have invested in new equipment to open and process ballots more quickly, Secretary of State Al Schmidt told WITF Radio in September.

Nevada: The state will not release results until after the last voter in line has cast their ballot, when polls close at 10 p.m. EST. Mail-in ballots can be counted 15 days before Election Day, which could lead to faster results than in 2020, but a state law that allows mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day to be counted if they are received by November 9 received, the process could take longer. The majority of Nevada voters cast their ballots by mail.

Arizona: The state is one of the slowest battlegrounds for counting ballots, with officials estimating it could take 10 to 13 days for the counting to be completed, according to The Washington Post. Election workers will count ballots as they are received, but will not begin processing ballots delivered on Election Day until after the polls close at 9:00 PM EST. An unusually long two-page ballot with 13 statewide ballot questions could also delay results.

Which states will be the first to report results?

North Carolina and Georgia are expected to be the first swing states to announce results, which could indicate which candidate is likely to win. Trump has a slight advantage in both states, although most polls are within the margin of error and show near-tie ties.

What are the recount rules?

In Arizona and Pennsylvania, state laws require a recount if the candidates’ votes are within 0.5% or less of each other, while Pennsylvania also allows voters to request recounts in specific districts where they expect fraud or errors, or in all districts , if there is no recount. accusation of an irregularity. Candidates can request a recount in Georgia if there is a difference of 0.5% or less between their vote shares, and the Secretary of State’s office can order a recount if there are suspected errors or irregularities. Michigan is giving candidates more leeway in requesting a recount under new laws signed in August that allow them to do so if they can “claim in good faith that the candidate, if no mistakes were made in the election or the outcome of the votes, would have a reasonable chance of winning.” The losing candidate in Nevada can also request a recount within three days of the vote being certified, while North Carolina law allows them to request a recount if there is a difference of 1% or less between vote totals. Wisconsin allows candidates to request a recount if they lose by one percent or less and suspect a “defect, irregularity or illegality.”

Tangent

In a phenomenon known as the “red mirage,” early vote counts in some states are likely to favor Trump on Election Day as in-person ballots are counted as Democrats tend to favor absentee voting and counting ballot papers are often sent by post. slowed down, leading to a so-called ‘blue shift’. At the same time, smaller, rural, Republican-leaning districts are also more likely to report vote totals than larger, urban districts. In a handful of other states, such as Georgia, ballots will be reported first, leading to a “blue mirage.”

Important background

The election for President Joe Biden took place on November 7, 2020, four days after Election Day, when Biden won Pennsylvania as the state put him over the 270-vote threshold needed to secure victory. States generally took longer to count votes in the 2020 election as large numbers of voters cast ballots by mail during the Covid-19 pandemic. And while early voting has broken records in several states, the share of absentee ballots is expected to decline this year. Trump needed the 2016 election much sooner, at 2:29 a.m. the night after the election, after he won Wisconsin’s 10 electors.

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