TAMPA, Fla. – Tropical Storm Rafael formed Monday afternoon and is expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico this week, the National Hurricane Center said.

As of 4:00 PM on Monday, the system was located at 15.5 N and 76.7 W with maximum sustained winds of 70 kilometers per hour, moving northward at 15 kilometers per hour.

Rafael is expected to pass near Jamaica, where a tropical storm warning is in effect, early Tuesday, according to the NHC.

A landfall is then expected in western Cuba on Wednesday, possibly as a Category 1 hurricane.

Will the storm hit Florida?

Once the storm enters the Gulf, it is expected to weaken due to cooler water temperatures and increased wind shear.

Models show the storm staying west of Florida, with FOX 13 meteorologist Dave Osterberg saying the Bay Area will see some rain and wind later this week.

“But that wind will go offshore,” Osterberg said. “That means no storm surge or anything like that.”

Tropical Storm Rafael is expected to move through the Gulf and remain west of Florida.

Elsewhere in the tropics

The remnants of Patty will move from east to northeast across the Atlantic Ocean, with heavy rainfall expected in parts of Portugal and western Spain over the next few days.

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