SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) – Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 remains a disorganized system, with maximum sustained winds of 55 km per hour. Thunderstorm activity is not yet organized enough to meet the criteria of a tropical cyclone, but further development is expected, and it will likely become Tropical Storm Rafael within about twelve hours.

The official forecast cone still shows PTC 18 strengthening into a Category 1 hurricane before making landfall in Cuba. Dry air and wind shear should cause some weakening as it enters the Gulf of Mexico. However, it is still expected to be a hurricane through Thursday.

The center of the storm will remain offshore in the Gulf, but will be close enough that showers and thunderstorms could hit the Suncoast by midweek. The exact timing and severity of any impacts are still uncertain, but the worst of the weather currently looks set to continue Wednesday night and Thursday.

Significant wind and storm surge threats are highly unlikely from this system according to the current forecast, but given the disorganized nature of this system, the track may change in the coming days. The most recent cone has moved slightly away from the coast, but you should still be prepared for it to move closer to the Sun Coast.

After entering the Gulf, the system is expected to gradually weaken as it moves northwest before making landfall somewhere along the central Gulf Coast, although this part of the forecast remains highly uncertain.

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