close
close

first Drop

Com TW NOw News 2024

Is Trump or Harris in the Lead?
news

Is Trump or Harris in the Lead?

play

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are statistically tied in the latest Forbes/HarrisX national poll released late Monday.

Harris has a razor-thin 49%-48% lead over Trump among the 4,520 registered voters surveyed, with 3% favoring third-party candidates. When respondents were asked to choose only Between Harris and Trump, the vice president’s lead grew slightly to 49%-47%, with 4% still undecided.

The survey was posted online between October 30 and November 1 and has a margin of error of ±1%.

Among respondents who said they had already cast their ballots, Harris was ahead of Trump 56%-40%, according to the poll.

“Price rises/inflation” was one of the top issues for respondents, with 36% of respondents saying it was top of the agenda. Immigration and the economy followed with 32% and 31% of respondents respectively, topping their list. Abortion came in fourth as the most important issue, with 16% of respondents saying it was one of their top issues.

“The race tomorrow will come down to turnout, especially for Trump,” Dritan Nesho, CEO and principal researcher at HarrisX, an analytics firm with no ties to Kamala Harris, told Forbes. “Trump has historically outperformed the polls in both 2016 and 2020, thanks to his ability to turn out low-propensity voters and win over voters who make last-minute decisions.”

Things to keep in mind when voting

The margin of error describes how accurately we can count on the research results being representative of the entire population.

When a candidate’s lead is “within” the margin of error, it is considered a “statistical tie,” according to the Pew Research Center.

Pew also found that the majority of pollsters have changed their methods since the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, significantly underestimating Trump’s performance.