Parastou Hassouria California voter living in Egypt has often voted by ballot in recent years. She is one of nearly three million Americans who can vote from abroad. According to federal estimates, about 300,000 citizens live in the Middle East and North Africa.

But she will not cast a vote this election.

Since October 7, 2023, Hassouri has contacted her elected representatives and participated in protests while visiting the US. But none of that seems to matter, she said. She called her decision not to vote a “last effort” to express her opinion.

Israel’s campaign in Gaza has killed more than 43,000 Palestinians and led to accusations of genocide at the International Court of Justice. The war has now spread to Lebanon, where more than 2,900 people have been killed. For Americans living in the region, both the devastation and American support for Israel were close to home and top of mind as the general election approached.

“I can’t bring myself to vote for the Democratic Party,” Hassouri said. “It is a decision that is completely motivated by the situation in Gaza and now in Lebanon.” She had little confidence that a Trump administration would prove better.

The Intercept spoke to registered American voters living in Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia and Jordan. Many believe their vote is unlikely to shape one of the issues they care most about: U.S. policy toward Israel-Palestine.

The number of American voters in the MENA region is small compared to those in Europe or Mexico. But the tight margins in the 2016 and 2020 elections, in which several swing states depended on fewer than 50,000 votes, show how important a small number of ballots can be. Days before the election, conversations with voters reveal how U.S. foreign policy influences voters’ choices, not just in swing states like Michigan, but also around the world.

About 1 in 3 eligible U.S. voters abroad are active-duty military members, according to the Federal Voting Assistance Program, and overall voting rates are low: Only 7.8 percent of eligible overseas voters cast ballots in the general election of 2020.

But this year, for the first time, the Democratic National Committee has attempted to register voters abroad in an effort to win votes for Harris-Walz. At the same time, Republicans have questioned the legitimacy of overseas citizens’ ballots in lawsuits filed in Michigan, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. Despite the Democratic bid to cast their votes, many Americans in the Middle East remain skeptical that a vote for Harris will translate into a change in American support for Israel’s war.

For Americans inside the region that cares about Palestine, conversations about voting come back to the belief that a vote for either candidate is unlikely to result in a change in foreign policy. “There’s nothing I see on Harris’ stage that gives me any hope,” Hassouri said. She and other potential voters interviewed by The Intercept cited Harris’ dismissal of protesters, refusal to join the Uncomposed movement and framing conversations about the Gaza war through the lens of Israel’s right to self-defense as evidence that she will likely conform to the policies of the Biden administration, if elected.

“There’s no chance, at least before this election, that we’re going to have someone who’s going to be really helpful in helping the lives and ending the genocide of the Palestinians,” said Leah, a 23-year-old from Georgia who is in the region lives. who asked not to be identified by surname or country of residence for fear her political outspokenness could damage her career in public service. She added that while she didn’t think either candidate was that great from a progressive perspective, she saw Harris as more competent in policy negotiations.

Haadiya, a recent Arizona graduate living in Morocco who also declined to share her last name for fear it could hurt her job search, also expressed disappointment with the candidates’ foreign policy positions. Living in Morocco has made her more concerned about how the election will affect the lives of people outside the US. “I care much more about global politics and global injustice than I do about local politics in the United States,” she said.

She thinks Donald Trump and Harris will approach foreign policy in similar ways. “I think the difference between the two candidates for the region would be so marginally small,” Haadiya said. “No matter what I do, it won’t be what I want in the end.”

Sophia, a 27-year-old voter from Florida living in Jordan, has lived outside the US for years. She has never missed an election, local or national. In every election but one, she has voted from abroad via absentee ballot.

But this year was the first time she considered not voting at all. For more than a year after the war in Gaza, she struggled to vote for the Democratic Party, whose policies in Gaza she opposes. “I used to not be much of a one-issue voter, and I still am not, but now it takes up a bigger part of my decision because Palestine is there,” said Sophia, who declined to give her last name. fearing that publicly expressing her political beliefs would jeopardize her job.

From Jordan, Sophia struggled to vote for a candidate and a party that has greenlit billions in American military aid to Israel. More than 2.3 million Palestinians live in Jordan and make up about 20 percent of the country’s population. “Because what is happening in Gaza is so visible, it is harder to ignore,” she said.

But she also saw no promise from Trump for Palestine. A second Trump presidency seemed a much bigger threat to her family and her rights. Ultimately, she cast her vote for the Harris-Walz ticket. “It was the most unmotivated vote I have ever cast,” Sophia said.