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    • What happens if there is a tie? Here’s why Trump will likely beat Harris in a presidential election tiebreaker
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    What happens if there is a tie? Here’s why Trump will likely beat Harris in a presidential election tiebreaker

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    Topline

    Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are in a dead heat in the national polls and the seven swing states — but there’s little chance it will end in a tie between the two candidates in the Electoral College, and in the rare case is one. it would likely lead to Trump becoming president.

    Key facts

    If the election ends in a tie and Trump and Harris each receive 269 electoral votes, the House would vote to elect the next president and the Senate would elect the vice president, with the House meeting on January 6, 2025.

    Instead of the House holding a standard vote, each state delegation would choose one candidate from the three who received the most electoral votes, according to the rules set forth in the 12th Amendment to the Constitution — meaning large states like California (52 members of the House of Representatives) and Texas (38) has as much influence as states like Wyoming (only one member).

    The 50 delegations would almost certainly vote along party lines, which would likely give Republicans an edge as they are favored to control the majority of state delegations after Election Day (even though the race in which the party will hold a majority of seats in controls the House of Representatives) heavily contested).

    The Senate, expected to be under Republican control, would then vote to elect the vice president, who would need 51 votes to win.

    If a candidate for president fails to secure votes from 26 delegations before Inauguration Day on Jan. 20, and the Senate has already chosen a vice president, that person will become acting president until the House vote is settled.

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    Is a draw likely?

    An Electoral College tie of 269 to 269 is considered highly unlikely. FiveThirtyEight predicts a 0.2% chance that neither candidate will reach 270, while statistician Nate Silver puts the chance at 0.4% (either due to a tie or winning third-party voters). There are several scenarios that could lead to a tie, such as if Harris wins the states that Biden won in 2020 except Michigan and Pennsylvania, or if Harris flips North Carolina and Trump wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada. There would also be a tie if Harris wins the blue wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and Trump wins the other four swing states plus Nebraska’s second congressional district, which includes Omaha and generally votes Democratic, while the rest of the state is reliably red.

    What to pay attention to

    The election could also become “contingent” if a third-party candidate wins electoral votes and neither Trump nor Harris reach the 270-vote threshold to win. Based on polling, it is virtually impossible for voters in any state to award electors to a third-party candidate, but about half of states do not legally require their electors to vote for the selected candidate electors, meaning that Trump and Harris each win 269 voters. Some could go rogue and select a third-party candidate, who would then qualify for the vote in the House of Representatives. “Disloyal voters” are rare, but not unprecedented: In the 2016 election, five who pledged to Hillary Clinton and two who pledged to Trump voted for other candidates.

    Big number

    94. That’s the number of electoral votes up for grabs in the seven swing states, plus Nebraska’s second district. If Harris wins all the non-swing states that Biden won in 2020, as expected, she would have 225 electoral votes, leaving Trump with 219.

    Has an electoral college tie ever happened?

    There hasn’t been an Electoral College tie since 1800, in the race between former President Thomas Jefferson and incumbent President John Adams, when Congress needed 36 ballots to elect Jefferson. In 1824, several candidates won electoral votes, with Andrew Jackson receiving the most, but not the majority. The House elected John Quincy Adams instead.

    Important background

    Each state is assigned a total number of electors equal to its representation in the House of Representatives and the Senate, while the District of Columbia has three, for a total of 538. State political parties are charged with appointing electors , usually at the conferences of their state parties. The Constitution prohibits employees of the federal government and federally elected officials from serving as electors; the individuals are typically notable political figures, such as elected state and local officials. Voters are given a “pledge” but are not required to vote for their state’s winning candidate, although some states punish “faithless electors” who vote for a different candidate. Maine and Nebraska are the only two states that do not take a winner-takes-all approach to allocating electors, instead allocating them based on a partially proportional system. Nebraska’s second congressional district is considered hugely important in a closely contested election like this because it would give Harris exactly 270 electoral votes if she won all the states Biden won, plus the “blue wall” of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, which if her clearest path to victory.

    Read more

    These demographics could decide the Trump-Harris race in the seven battleground states (Forbes)

    Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Trump Leads Sun Belt, Harris Leads North – and Pennsylvania’s Wafer-Thin (Latest Update) (Forbes)

    Trump vs. Harris 2024 polls: Harris leads by 2 points in new survey – as polling tightens ahead of election (Forbes)

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