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These are the “defining” counties that could determine the next president
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These are the “defining” counties that could determine the next president

As Election Day finally arrives, there are a few counties that experts are watching closely because their results could indicate who the next president will be.

These swing counties are known as “bellwether counties” and, with few exceptions, have consistently sided with the winning candidate for decades.

Matthew Bergbower, a political science professor at Indiana State University, described a Bellwether County as a “microcosm of the nation” in terms of political preferences.

Although his county, Vigo County, Indiana, deviated from voting for Donald Trump in 2020, it has chosen the winning candidate in every election since 1952.

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Voters casting their ballots in Georgia

Voters cast their ballots during the final day of early voting in Gwinnett County, Georgia, on November 1, 2024. (Nathan Posner/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Clallam County, Washington State, has the distinction of being the only county to have voted for the winning presidential candidate in every election since 1980. The residents of Clallam County are proud of their history as the “last important county” in America.

This year the province looks as divided as ever.

Pam Blakeman, chair of the Clallam County Republicans, told Fox News Digital that she thinks the election “will be close in our County, but I see it moving toward Trump.”

She’s basing this on good Republican turnout and a ground race that she says is “the most active I’ve ever seen.”

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SBA Pro-Life America says its voter contact program has knocked on 4 million doors in swing states. (SBA Pro-Life America)

However, Ben Anderstone, a progressive Washington political consultant, told Fox News Digital that “a Trump victory in Clallam County would be a bit of a surprise at this point.”

“This year it seems likely that Clallam County will be to the left of the country,” he said. “During our August primary, Clallam County was heavily Democratic, about 57% to 43%. Voters with lower turnout in Clallam County are heavily Republican, so we expect the presidential election to be a lot tighter. Yet our model suggests that Clallam will. just tighten it to 53%-47% Democratic or so.”

Like Clallam County, the presidential election could easily go either way. But with former Republican President Trump and Democratic vice president nominee Harris facing razor-thin margins, three counties — Bucks, Erie and Northampton in Pennsylvania — stand out as particularly important.

Pennsylvania, which has 19 electoral votes, is the largest swing state and therefore the biggest target for both Trump and Harris. During this election cycle, Trump and Harris had significant presences in the state and in these three counties.

Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign event

Vice President Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate, leads a rally in Allentown, Pennsylvania, on November 4, 2024. (Fox News – Paul Steinhauser)

On the final day before Election Day, Trump campaigned in both eastern and western Pennsylvania and Harris devoted the day to stops across the state. Vice presidential candidates Sen. J.D. Vance, R-Ohio, and Democrat Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz have made similar stops in Pennsylvania during the campaign.

“Both campaigns see the road to the White House passing through Pennsylvania,” said Berwood Yost, director of the national research group the Center for Opinion Research. Likewise, he said the road to victory in Pennsylvania passes through Bucks, Erie and Northampton counties.

Bucks is a primarily suburban county just north of Philadelphia. Located in far northwestern Pennsylvania on Lake Erie, Erie is primarily rural and considerably smaller in population. Finally, in eastern Pennsylvania, Northampton is a suburb and home to Lehigh University, a private research school.

According to Yost, all three reflect many of the key demographic characteristics, such as racial composition, education level and population density, that make Pennsylvania so competitive.

Donald Trump during campaign event

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is shown at a campaign rally on October 29, 2024 in Allentown, Pennsylvania. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

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President Biden won Pennsylvania in 2020 by a narrow margin of 1.17 percent. The margins in Bucks (4.37), Erie (1.03) and Northampton (0.72) were also close.

Yost said people in these counties, like the rest of the country, are “generally dissatisfied” with the economy and want to see some kind of change, something that is a positive indicator for Trump. However, he said that “the fact that the race is so close, it seems like they haven’t been able to take advantage of that.”

“I think part of the reason the race is so close is because that message is not consistently articulated through the top of the ticket,” he said. “These distractions have caused some concern among some voters.”

Yost said the race comes down to what independents and traditional Republicans, who are not enthusiastic about Trump, will decide at the ballot box.

“That will really be the turning point of this election for me,” he said. “If they are shaky and think it’s the economy, that’s a plus for Trump. If they go to the voting booth and think about something else, that is negative for the Trump campaign.”

Get the latest updates from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews and more on our Fox News Digital election hub.