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Who wins in a respected statistician’s election prediction model?
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Who wins in a respected statistician’s election prediction model?

Americans go to the polls on Tuesday to elect a new president.

Polls leading up to Election Day show a real battle between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.

All times listed below are Eastern.

GOOGLE

Google said in a statement Tuesday afternoon that it has fixed an issue that caused the “where to vote” feature to appear for users looking to vote for Harris, but not for those looking for information on how to vote for Trump. to vote.

Social media users reported that Google would display the “where to vote” map feature when a user searched for “where to vote for Harris.” Meanwhile, the map feature wouldn’t appear when “where to vote for Trump” was entered into Google’s search bar.

Google claimed that the problem stemmed from the fact that a Texas county, Harris County, shares a name with the vice president. There is no ‘Trump County’ in the United States.

The statement also explained that “very few people” search for polling places by searching “where to vote for Trump” and “where to vote for Harris” in Google, suggesting the issue had a negligible impact on the election .

TRUMP RESPONDS TO OPRAH’S COMMENT

Trump said he wasn’t too happy when he heard Oprah Winfrey tell voters that it’s “very possible we’ll never get the chance to vote again” if they don’t vote for Harris.

Winfrey made the comment Monday evening at a rally for Harris in Pennsylvania, a key battleground state.

“She should be ashamed of herself,” Trump said of Winfrey after voting in Florida on Tuesday.

TRUMP CAMPAIGN GETS A ‘GOOD NIGHT’

The Trump campaign is touting the results of an NBC poll released Sunday that suggests women and voters in urban areas are voting early in lower numbers.

Trump campaign spokeswoman Elizabeth Pipko called the poll “monumental” and that it means Trump would have a “good night” this Election Day.

HARRIS VOTES BY MAIL

The presidential candidates have cast their votes in this razor-thin election.

Harris told reporters this weekend that she voted by mail in her home state of California.

Trump voted at a polling station in Florida on Tuesday.

CLOSER THAN A COIN FLIP, 3 p.m

Respected statistician Nate Silver released the results of his “last and final” election prediction model on Tuesday.

Silver, the founder of the polling aggregation website FiveThirtyEight, has run 80,000 simulations of the Trump-Harris matchup.

Harris won in 40,012 of those simulations, leaving Trump with 39,988 simulated victories.

“This is my fifth presidential election — and my ninth general election overall, counting the midterms — and nothing like this has ever happened before,” Silver wrote in his newsletter. “From the model’s point of view, however, the race is literally closer than a tail: empirically, heads wins 50.5 percent of the time, more than Harris’s 50.015 percent.”

STAY IN THE LINE

Trump and his running mate, Sen. JD Vance, urged voters to stay in line despite long waits at polling places.

THE TRUMP ERA

Trump has been at the center of American politics for about a decade now, reshaping his party in his image and trying to win back the White House as a rare three-term presidential candidate.

Whether Trump wins Tuesday or not, has the Trump era changed the Republican Party for the foreseeable future?

“Yes, this is the fundamental question,” Casey Burgat, Legislative Affairs program director at George Washington University, said Monday. “And for me he has already reshaped it. We see it with the kinds of candidates who run, the kinds of legislators who retire and choose not to run, who run in which primary races, in which districts. He fundamentally reshaped it. He has taken over the Republican Party. And the big question was always what would come next.”

Read the full story here.

MARYLAND GOVERNOR ON PRESIDENTIAL RACE, 2:21 p.m

Maryland Governor Wes Moore said Tuesday that men who choose not to vote for Harris are ignoring the protections of their female relatives.

The comment came during Moore’s Election Day appearance on MSNBC.

HOW DOES AP CALL RACES?

The Associated Press — which has been compiling voting results and declaring winners from election offices across the country for more than 170 years — said it calls races when there is “no way the trailing candidate can close the gap.”

TRUMP VOTES, 11:30 a.m. Eastern

Trump cast his vote in Florida on Tuesday and expressed optimism during a call with reporters.

“We went into today with a very big lead and it looks like the Republicans have come out in force,” Trump said. “So we’ll see how it turns out.”

Florida will likely side with Trump, with the race coming down to a handful of swing states, including neighboring Georgia.

Trump said he had a great campaign.

“Maybe the best of the three,” he said.

He acknowledged that a winner may not be announced by Tuesday evening, and he said he has not prepared a speech.

WHO WILL THE VOTERS COME FOR?

An amalgam of hundreds of polls published by The Hill shows both candidates with 48% of the vote.

The election will be decided by voters in seven swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

The latest New York Times/Siena College swing state polls showed nearly all races within the margin of error, meaning any apparent lead should be taken with a grain of salt.

Another element in two swing states is the abortion issue.

Voters will decide on eleven abortion initiatives in ten states, including the battleground states of Arizona and Nevada.

“It could get people off the couch, it could get people out of the house to vote for abortion rights. And my guess is that those people will probably vote for Harris,” Anne Whitesell, an assistant professor of political science at Miami University in Ohio, previously told The National News Desk.

Immigration is a top issue for many voters, and that issue favors Trump.

The economy, the main issue for voters, has also generally favored Trump in polls conducted in the weeks and months before the election.

Voter differences beyond party could also decide these elections.

One of those differences is the gender gap, which shows that the Times/Siena College poll shows Harris with a lead among women of 54% to 42%, and Trump with a lead among men of 55% to 41%.

There is a degree gap, showing that nearly 60% of people with a college degree favor Harris and 54% without a degree favor Trump.

And Trump’s ability to return to the White House could depend on his ability to win back the suburban voters he lost in 2020.

When Trump won in 2016, he did so with a two-point lead among suburban voters.

When he lost in 2020, he did so by 11 points among suburban voters.

Polls leading into this election show Trump once again trailing among suburban voters. Reuters/Ipsos polls show him trailing Vice President Kamla Harris by six percentage points among suburban voters.

“I think things are so complicated that it’s only 99% of voters on both sides right now,” Oklahoma State University political professor Seth McKee said earlier.