Bitcoin rose on Tuesday evening, hitting a record high as investors bet that former President Donald Trump gained an edge in the US election as results poured in.

According to Coin Metrics, the price of the flagship cryptocurrency reached a record $75,000. It was last up 10% at $74,315.91. It hit its previous high of $73,797.68 on March 14 and has since traded within a narrow range below $70,000 for most of the year.

Bitcoin’s gains on Tuesday night increased as Trump took an early lead in the Electoral College, even though none of the major swing states had yet been called by NBC News.

Exchange operator Coin base rose 3% in after-hours trading, while MicroStrategyadvanced 4%.

Investors expect bitcoin trading to be choppy until a clear winner is declared. A win for Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to carry the risk of downward moves in the price of bitcoin, while traders anticipate a price surge in the event of a victory for former President Donald Trump.

“The election has a huge impact on crypto,” said Ryan Rasmussen, head of research at Bitwise Asset Management. “Expect bitcoin – and crypto more broadly – ​​to be choppy in the coming days… until we have final election results.”

“If Trump wins, I think we will see new all-time highs,” Rasmussen added. “If Harris wins, I expect a significant sell-off in the short term, with prices taking a month or two to recover. But either way, ultimately I think we’ll go higher.”

In the 2012, 2016 and 2020 elections, bitcoin achieved returns of approximately 87%, 44% and 145% respectively in the 90 days following election day. That’s partly because election years happen to coincide with Bitcoin’s halving years, when the cryptocurrency’s supply goes down. Post-election returns also appeared to be in line with major policy changes from the Federal Reserve. This year the market is looking forward to further interest rate cuts.

Bitcoin is trading just under $70,000 at fair value heading into Election Day, according to CryptoQuant. That means if the elections prove to be a positive catalyst in the coming days, bitcoin could rebound and be poised to set a new all-time high, according to CryptoQuant analyst Julio Moreno.

“For now, everyone we’ve spoken to is keeping their powder dry,” said James Davies, CEO of crypto futures and options trading platform Crypto Valley Exchange. “I have heard from countless leading market makers and traders and can confidently say that almost everyone is ready to respond. They don’t even know which way the markets will move based on (the) outcome. There will likely be massive short positions. ” -term volatility, regardless of the outcome.”

This year’s presidential elections have been called the most important in the life of the crypto industry. Many view a Harris victory as a threat to crypto, the extent of which has been debated throughout this election cycle. Trump, on the other hand, is seen by many as a force for good in the industry, having presented himself as the pro-crypto candidate earlier this year and courted the industry more directly than Harris.

Many voters are concerned about the state of the federal deficit, which rose 8% to $1.8 trillion in the 2024 fiscal year, and the increased tax cuts promised by both candidates. Bitcoin, like gold, is seen by many investors as a hedge against the potential of fiscal and monetary policies combining to lower the value of the dollar and drive up inflation.