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European voters – even some from the far right – want Harris’ victory, opinion polls show | Europe
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European voters – even some from the far right – want Harris’ victory, opinion polls show | Europe

Most Western Europeans – and even many who vote for far-right parties – would like to see Kamala Harris win the US presidential election, polls show, but fewer people are confident she will and most expect violence if Donald Trump is not elected.

The YouGov Eurotrack survey of voters in Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden and Denmark found the Democratic vice president was the preferred winner in every country, with significant majorities in favor of Harris in all but Italy.

Voters in Denmark were most keen to see Harris in the White House at 81%, followed by 71% in Germany, 65% in Spain, 62% in France and 61% in Britain; the 46% of Italians who shared the same opinion was still almost double the percentage of those who chose Trump instead.

Bar chart showing overwhelming support for Kamal Harris among Western Europeans

Unsurprisingly, support for the Democratic candidate was strongest among left-wing and centrist voters in Europe, with a range of 80 to 90 percent among supporters of parties such as the Social Democrats and the Greens in Germany, Sumar in Spain, Emmanuel Macron in France, the Social Democrats and the Greens in Germany, Sumar in Spain, Emmanuel Macron in France, the Social Democrats and the Greens. Democrats in Sweden and the Liberal Democrats in Britain.

However, those who recently cast their votes for traditional center-right parties also preferred Harris to Trump, often by significant margins: 89% of Venstre voters in Denmark, 78% of Christian Democratic (CDU/CSU) voters in Germany, 66% of voters People’s Party voters in Spain and 58% of Conservative Party voters in Great Britain.

And even among Western Europeans who recently voted for far-right, nationalist and populist parties, significant numbers of respondents in all seven countries said they would prefer to see Harris elected president over her Republican rival.

Trump was the preferred candidate of far-right voters in Spain, Britain, Germany and Italy, with 54% of Vox voters (compared to 23% who preferred Harris), 51% (27%) of Reform UK voters, 50% (36%) of Alternative for Germany voters in Germany and 44% (32%) of Brothers of Italy voters say they wanted the former president to secure a second term.

But among far-right Swedish Democratic voters, 49% said they would choose Harris in the White House over 31% who favored Trump, while 46% who voted for Marine Le Pen in the second round of the 2022 French presidential election said they would preferred the US Democratic Party candidate won, compared to 31% who preferred Trump.

Western Europeans, however, were less confident that their wish would become reality. The general expectation was that Harris would emerge victorious on November 5, but the figures were lower, ranging from 43% in Italy, 46% in Sweden and Britain, 47% in France and 52% in Spain to 61 % in Germany.

Bar charts breaking down support for Trump and Harris among Europeans depending on loyalty to political parties in their home country

When asked whether they thought the outgoing Democratic president, Joe Biden, had done a great, good, average, bad or terrible job, the most common rating in the countries surveyed was “average,” with percentages of people who shared this view ranged from 39% in Britain to 46% in Spain and 47% in Germany.

Mostly, they think Harris would do better, with the most widespread belief in every country being that the current vice president would be either a “great” or a “good” head of state. About 37% of Italians held this view, rising to 45% in Spain, 57% in Germany and a maximum of 64% in Denmark.

Expectations for Trump were considerably worse. In every country, the most common view – ranging from 48% in Italy, through 59% in France and 69% in Britain to 77% in Denmark – was that the Republican candidate would be a “poor” or “terrible” president.

If Trump is defeated at the ballot box next week, Western Europeans expect violence. As many as 73% in Denmark think there will “certainly” or “probably” be violence if Harris wins, while between 62% and 67% share the same view in most other countries surveyed.

Italy was again the exception: the poll, conducted over a ten-day period in mid-October, indicated that only 47% thought violence was likely. But there too, the percentage was larger than the 32% who considered violence unlikely.