The NFL regular season has reached the halfway point following Week 9, and the overarching story of the first half of football is the increased number of terrible teams this season. There are nine teams that have two wins or fewer in their first eight or nine games: Miami, New England, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Las Vegas, Carolina, New Orleans, and the New York Giants.

Some of this is injury-related, as the Saints and Dolphins played multiple games without their starting quarterback, but the gap between the average team in the NFL and the bottom tier is consistently growing. As a result, favorites won straight up in 14 of the 15 games played in Week 9 and they went 10-5 against the spread.

Will favorites continue to roll in November as they did for most of October? Or will parity be restored to the NFL?

The Browns, Packers, Raiders, and Seahawks are on bye in Week 10. Here are my thoughts on all 14 games from the Week 10 slate, which kicks off on Thursday night with an appetizing AFC North matchup between the Bengals and Ravens in Baltimore. I’ll let you know which games I’m passing on, considering betting on, and have already bet on. All lines are from FanDuel as of Wednesday night, unless otherwise noted.

Thursday Night Football

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)

This is a crucial moment for the Bengals, facing the Ravens on the road in a divisional rematch on a short week. In their first meeting, Cincinnati lost in overtime after blowing a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter. The market favored the Ravens by -2.5 with a total of 47 for that game in Week 6, but now the total has increased to 53.5, indicating a shift toward the over. With the Ravens producing the most plays of 20-plus yards in the NFL and allowing the second-most plays, it’s easy to see why this total is that high.

The Bengals defense struggles to create negative plays, resulting in the third-lowest havoc rate in the league. Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, and this Ravens offensive unit are firing on all cylinders. While the Bengals may slow down the Ravens, it’s uncertain if they can consistently stop them.

On the other side of the ball, the Ravens have become a bit of a pass-funnel defense just because teams can’t really run the ball on them. Cincinnati’s best strategy may be to focus on methodical passing to advance down the field. The Bengals’ offensive success may hinge on the availability of Tee Higgins, whose status is uncertain. Without him, I’d bet the under at 53.5.

Verdict: Lean under 53.5

Sunday Matchups

New York Giants (-6.5) at Carolina Panthers in Germany

There’s been support in the market for the Giants all week. They opened as five-point favorites before being bet out to 6.5. The line immediately struck me as wrong, until I realized that this game is not in Carolina, but is in fact in Germany. That immediately makes this one of the all-time worst international games ever scheduled, and there have been a lot of bad Jaguars teams that have played in London over the years. One consequence of the increase of bad football teams in 2024 is that you get more of these diabolical matchups between two tanking franchises.

Please find something better to do with your fall Sunday morning than betting on or watching this game. I know I will. If you’re a true sicko, you can relish one of the few opportunities left to bet against both Daniel Jones and Bryce Young as starting QBs in the NFL.

Verdict: Pass

New England Patriots at Chicago Bears (-6.5)

The Patriots defense spent a significant amount of time on the field in Tennessee last week, including nearly all of overtime, as the Titans ran 73 plays and had 38 minutes of possession. Now the Patriots have a second consecutive road game, against a Chicago team that’s suddenly in turmoil again—just two weeks after the Bears seemed to have righted the ship. The Hail Mary loss to Washington is one thing, but the entirely lifeless performance against the Cardinals last Sunday suggests deeper problems and raises questions about how much to believe in the Bears coaching staff.

DJ Moore didn’t exactly give a vote of confidence to head coach Matt Eberflus when he answered “I wanna say no” to a question about whether Eberflus had lost the locker room. For me, the alarm bells for Chicago rang in the Washington game when the Bears, coming out of the bye week at 4-2, showed no real improvement in offensive connectivity or creativity despite playing against a mediocre Washington defense.

Aside from two excellent games before the bye against the Panthers and Jaguars—who might be the league’s two worst defenses—the Bears have been among the league’s worst offenses. Chicago ranks 25th in EPA per play overall and 27th in DVOA.

New England’s offense might be more explosive with Drake Maye in the lineup, but facing a defense that ranks in the top five in explosive play rate allowed, this total seems too high.

Verdict: Bet under 38.5 (-105)

Buffalo Bills (-3.5) at Indianapolis Colts

This is a challenging spot in the schedule for Buffalo, in the middle of their divisional battle with Miami last week and next week’s looming matchup with the Chiefs in Orchard Park. Keon Coleman had recently emerged as the Bills’ best receiver, and now he could miss multiple weeks due to a wrist injury. Buffalo’s offense was able to find a plethora of explosive pass plays in the first three weeks of the season, but those have disappeared. Since Week 4, the Bills are 22nd in explosive pass rate. They’re facing an Indianapolis defense whose primary issue has been defending top-tier wide receivers, an area where the Bills lack the ability to threaten. Amari Cooper missed Sunday’s game against the Dolphins with a wrist injury, but did return as a limited participant to practice on Wednesday.

The Colts aren’t a difficult defense to move the ball against, but they do force you to be methodical, and their run defense has shown continued improvement in recent weeks as they’ve gotten healthier.

Indianapolis turned to Joe Flacco as the starting quarterback last week and posted some genuinely terrible offensive statistics in Minnesota. Not only did the Colts fail to make it to the Vikings’ red zone, but the run game was completely neutralized. The threat of Anthony Richardson’s legs has helped create space for Colts running backs. With Flacco at the helm, they’ve been reliant on hitting big plays on third down. Against a Sean McDermott defense that’s designed to take away big plays, it will be difficult for the Colts to sustain drives.

I would bet the under at 47 or better and consider the Colts as a home dog if the line is above 4.

Verdict: Bet under 47.5 (-105)

Minnesota Vikings (-4.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Doug Pederson said Wednesday that he “can’t answer that” when asked if Trevor Lawrence is playing Sunday as he deals with soreness in his non-throwing shoulder. Whether or not Lawrence plays is anyone’s guess at this point, but I’ll be looking to back the Jaguars yet again if Lawrence is able to suit up. It’s been lost in the fog of losing as the Jaguars crumble, but the market’s refusal to give up on Jacksonville has been rewarded with three consecutive against-the-spread covers. They won’t give you a trophy for covering the spread in close losses to the Packers and Eagles, but Jacksonville has been in the mix to beat two of the NFC’s best teams in the past two weeks.

Minnesota was in a dream spot at home in prime time on extra rest last week and came out flat yet again. They didn’t even score until the second half, with mistakes continuing to pile up for Sam Darnold as he threw two interceptions and also fumbled away points to the Colts. The Vikings have the vastly superior defense, but Jacksonville’s offense actually grades out better by both EPA per play and success rate this season.

After the first quarter, the Vikings offense drops to 26th in EPA per play, while Jacksonville remains league average. So long as the Vikings don’t go up big early, the Jaguars will be in this game late if Lawrence starts.

Verdict: Bet Jaguars +4.5 if Lawrence is in, good to +3.5

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5)

This game may go down as one of the most popular teaser legs of the year. The Chiefs are on a short week and in a potentially tough spot due to their upcoming trip to Buffalo. However, Denver’s first test against a high-caliber team didn’t go well in any aspect. Baltimore not only shut out Bo Nix in the second half, but also brushed aside Denver’s vaunted defense, which was perceived as elite.

The under or Broncos team total under is the only way I would consider playing this game. The Chiefs offense lacks any explosiveness at the moment. Kareem Hunt remains the top running back, but it seems he is unable to break a 20-plus-yard run. Despite being 1.6 percent better in success rate than every other offense in the NFL, the Chiefs rank 32nd in explosive rush rate. The onus remains entirely on Patrick Mahomes’s shoulders to bail them out on third down, as he did in the Monday night victory against Tampa Bay. The Chiefs’ ability to blitz, play man coverage, and potentially rattle Nix in his first head-to-head matchup with Steve Spagnuolo could pose a tough challenge for the rookie.

The Chiefs are the kings of the eight-minute, second-half field goal drive to salt the game away, and this game is a textbook 24-10 game late with some backdoor potential if you choose to bet on the Chiefs. A teaser may be the better option.

Verdict: Lean Broncos team total u16.5, prefer Chiefs -2.5 teaser leg

Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) at New Orleans Saints

Drake London is day-to-day with a hip injury as of Wednesday, and the Falcons don’t have much incentive to rush him back given their standing in the NFC South. Atlanta has won all four of its divisional games, including a last-second win at home against the Saints on a Younghoe Koo field goal. Consequently, it would take a miracle for Tampa Bay to catch them for the NFC South title. London would be a significant loss, as he’s top-10 in the league in receptions and tied for second in touchdowns. Even with Kyle Pitts and Darnell Mooney having solid seasons, I think Atlanta’s power rating is a bit inflated in the market by virtue of playing some bad and injured NFC South teams.

This is a perfect opportunity to support the Saints at home immediately after they fired Dennis Allen. They are a flawed team, and their struggles in defending the run are immediately noticeable as a matchup issue in this game. However, Derek Carr is another week removed from the injury that seemed to affect him last week. The Falcons still can’t generate any pressure to disrupt Carr in the pocket, and New Orleans’s loss to Carolina was somewhat flukey. This is the ultimate buy-low on the Saints and while it’s been ugly to back these home underdogs lately, we place our faith in interim head coach Darren Rizzi.

Verdict: Bet Saints +3.5

San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I’m starting to see parallels between the 2022 San Francisco team and the 2024 version. In 2022, the Niners started 3-4 and even suffered a blowout loss to the Chiefs when the roster was decimated by injuries. (Sound familiar?) Those 49ers lost two puzzling games to the Broncos and Bears that they had no business losing. However, that team traded for Christian McCaffrey, entered the bye week at 4-4, and then finished the season 13-4.

This year’s 49ers had a significant win against Dallas before the bye week and will be in an excellent position on Sunday in Tampa Bay. The 49ers have already experienced two bizarre late-game collapses against the Cardinals and Rams. Now is the time to make a strong push and establish themselves as the best in the division. The Bucs are coming in on short rest from a Monday night overtime loss and have struggled to contain any competent offense this season.

In 2022, Brock Purdy dismantled Todd Bowles’s defense in a 35-7 victory for the 49ers, followed by a 27-14 win last year. This game looks like a favorable matchup for San Francisco as it seems poised to have a strong offensive performance.

Verdict: Bet 49ers -5.5 (-118)

Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Commanders (-2.5)

The Commanders opened as a 2.5-point favorite at home and were bet up to -3 against the Steelers. Pittsburgh’s offense ranked 21st in EPA per drive in the first six weeks with Justin Fields at quarterback. Since Mike Tomlin made the controversial decision to bench Fields when Pittsburgh was 4-2, the Steelers offense ranks seventh in EPA per drive with Russell Wilson at the helm. The sample is too small to be meaningful long term, but it’s clear that his deep-ball throws have helped make this offense better.

Much like Pittsburgh’s offense, the Commanders defense is trending up. Since Week 5, Washington is sixth in EPA per drive allowed. They ranked 32nd in the first four games of the season. The truth is somewhere in the middle, but I do know that Dan Quinn is a hell of a defensive coach and consistently developed productive players from his time in Dallas as coordinator. You have to decide which improvement you think is more real.

The situational spot is better for Pittsburgh off the bye, but I still lean with the Commanders here.

Verdict: Lean Commanders -3, bet at -2.5

Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers (-7.5)

The Chargers defense has now exceeded pregame market expectations eight consecutive times this season after Jesse Minter’s unit shut down the Browns last Sunday. No team has scored more than 20 points on Los Angeles, and Tennessee’s offense doesn’t look primed to be the first. While it is true that the schedule has not been particularly difficult for the Chargers, they rank first in EPA per play, seventh in success rate allowed, and sixth in DVOA, which does adjust for the schedule.

Titans head coach Brian Callahan hasn’t said whether Will Levis or Mason Rudolph will start at QB, just that Levis will see more snaps in practice this week as he recovers from an injury to his throwing shoulder. At this point, it’s hard to say there’s been much of a difference between them. Levis ranks 38th out of 40 QBs in EPA per play, while Rudolph is 30th. Tennessee played one of the worst defenses in the league last week at home and scored 17 in regulation.

I don’t think they’ll even get to 15 on Sunday against a Chargers defense that has feasted on bad offenses all year long.

Verdict: Bet Titans team total under 14.5 (-118)

New York Jets (-1.5) at Arizona Cardinals

For the 10th consecutive week, I find myself without a strong opinion on either side of a Cardinals game. The Jets capitalized on the weakened Texans in a favorable matchup at home on Thursday night in Week 9, securing a 21-13 win despite appearing out of sync offensively and poorly coached for most of the game. This win, to me, highlighted more about the current state of the Texans than it did any potential Jets resurgence. While it is true that the Jets have performed better than their 3-6 record suggests—a few bounces and they could easily be 5-4—they still lack the strength in the trenches for me to consider them a significantly improved team.

Similarly, the Cardinals’ impressive victory against the Bears in Week 9 revealed more about the current state of the Bears than the Cardinals themselves. I’ll be passing here as I patiently wait for the day I feel confident enough to place American dollars on a Cardinals game in 2024.

Verdict: Pass

Philadelphia Eagles (-7) at Dallas Cowboys

This NFC East rivalry has brought a ton of drama and competitive games over the years, but the injuries to Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb, combined with the Cowboys’ general malaise, have taken the sting out of this contest. The Cowboys are a really tough team to evaluate. We’ve seen them have success with Cooper Rush in the past, but those teams had capable run games, quality offensive line play, and a ball-hawking defense. The market didn’t take long on Monday to go from -6.5 to -7.5 for Philly, and I’m not surprised that some sharp money moved the line back to Dallas +7. I’d usually look to buy the team in their first game with the backup QB, but Dallas has the potential to wave the white flag on the season here.

Without Lamb and Prescott, is there anything the Cowboys actually do well? Lamb was limited in practice on Wednesday so he could play, but what’s the incentive to play him if you’re Dallas?

Verdict: Pass

Sunday Night Football

Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Houston Texans

Detroit has been a covering machine in the Dan Campbell era. The Lions have covered the spread in 40 of their past 55 games (72.7 percent) since 2021, according to Evan Abrams. I bet against the Lions last week with the Packers, but that backfired after Jordan Love’s ill-advised pick-six. It should be noted that Detroit has won its past two games comfortably, but the offense hasn’t been as efficient, and the final box scores haven’t reflected those scores accurately. Green Bay struggled in the red zone but actually averaged more yards per play and had more total yards than the Lions.

Detroit has dominated in high-leverage plays—turnovers, fourth downs, and special teams—but I’ll be interested to see how the Lions offense looks this week against one of the league’s better defenses on the road.

The problems with the Texans offense have been well-documented in this column. I’ve bet against the Texans offense either by team total, game total, or spread in six of the nine weeks so far (4-2 overall). The offensive line has been a mess, they lack receiving options with Stefon Diggs and Nico Collins hurt, and the run game has been quite hit-or-miss. I suspect that Collins will not play in this game, making it quite difficult for C.J. Stroud to keep up with the Lions offense if it’s clicking.

The number on the Lions is inflated here, so I’d only consider actually betting the Lions at -3, but Detroit is the only way I could bet this matchup given Houston’s injury situation.

Verdict: Lean Lions -3/-3.5

Monday Night Football

Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Rams (-1.5)

Miami’s offense immediately flipped a switch upon Tua Tagovailoa’s return, scoring 27 points in each of the first two games. Last Sunday’s game in Buffalo was especially notable because Tagovailoa hadn’t previously experienced that level of consistent success against a Sean McDermott defense. The problem is that the Dolphins lost to the Bills and Cardinals, and now find themselves playing for their season on Monday night.

The key factor in this matchup will be which defensive line can generate more pressure, as neither secondary seems capable of holding up against these excellent offensive play callers and skill position groups. The Rams rank 12th in pass rush grade from PFF, while the Dolphins are 26th. The emergence of rookie Jared Verse is a significant advantage for the Rams’ pass rush, likely resulting in De’Von Achane seeing a lot of work in the passing game. With the Dolphins focused on protecting Tagovailoa and getting the ball out quickly, this presents another opportunity to consider betting on Achane’s reception prop overs.

Verdict: Lean Rams -1.5, wait for prop markets to bet Achane reception overs

Bets I’ve made so far in Week 10:

Bears-Patriots under 38.5 (-105)
49ers -5.5 (-118)
Saints +3.5 (-105)
Jaguars +4.5 (-115) if Lawrence plays*
Bills-Colts under 47.5 (-105)
Titans team total under 14.5 (-118)