Roki Sasaki is officially coming to the MLB.

The Chiba Lotte Marines announced Saturday in Japan that they will post the flame-throwing phenom for a move to the US, where he now looms as one of the biggest names of the offseason. It’s unclear when the process will officially begin, but MLB teams have 45 days to court Sasaki after he is posted.

The Marines included comments in the announcement from their general manager, manager and 23-year-old Sasaki himself. Sasaki’s comments on his long-term interest in playing in the MLB: as translated by Yakyu Cosmopolitan on X:

In four seasons with the Marines, Sasaki posted a career-high 2.02 ERA with 524 strikeouts in 414 2/3 innings across four seasons.

Roki Sasaki’s move to the MLB is financially remarkable

This move was widely speculated, but not necessarily expected, for one important reason. Because he is under 25 years old, Sasaki won’t be able to negotiate an expensive MLB contract like fellow countryman Yoshinobu Yamamoto did last season for $325 million.

Instead, Sasaki will only be able to negotiate a signing bonus from MLB teams’ international bonus pools, which totaled just over $7 million this year. Once signed, his status will be similar to that of any other candidate, with him having to go through six years of pre-arbitration and arbitration salaries before he can reach free agency. It’s the same process Shohei Ohtani went through when he came to MLB before the 2018 season, and Sasaki can only hope it ends with his own nine-figure payday.

The bigger question is why the Marines would post Sasaki. NPB teams receive a portion of the money a ranked player receives from them in the MLB. If Sasaki had been stationed in two years, at age 25, the Marines could have received a sum comparable to the $50.625 million the Orix Buffaloes raked in by posting Yamamoto. Instead, they receive a relative pittance.

Japanese baseball observers have speculated that Sasaki has some sort of side deal to force the Marines to draft him, which could set a dangerous precedent for MLB teams. Whether that’s true or not, the day many MLB teams have been anticipating is finally here.

You can read more about Sasaki’s pre-post situation here.

Who are the favorites for Roki Sasaki?

Sasaki’s post will see a process similar to what Ohtani had, with every MLB team trying to pitch him with money as a relatively minor factor. Instead, Sasaki will likely choose his team based on what they can offer him from a development and comfort perspective.

It should be a competitive process, but it has been said repeatedly that one team has an edge for Sasaki if he ever gets drafted: the Los Angeles Dodgers. Here is a list of advantages the defending champions have in their search for a promising young Japanese player:

• There is $2.5 million left in their 2024 international bonus pool, the most of any MLB team

• two of Sasaki’s Samurai Japan teammates in Ohtani and Yamamoto

• a track record of 12 consecutive playoff berths and the most recent World Series title

• a reputation for superior development and game planning with pitchers

• a stated interest in using a six-man rotation next year, which would be close to Japan’s once-a-week cadence

• a favorable time zone for Japanese viewers

• the largest following of any team in Japan thanks to Ohtani’s untouched fame and past success with the groundbreaking Hideo Nomo

• the largest Japanese population in the continental United States

Other MLB teams have Japanese players and/or the promise of competitiveness, but it’s hard to see a more natural fit. On the other hand, Sasaki may not be interested in playing in the shadow of Ohtani and Yamamoto, or he may have some reasons for choosing a different team.

The decision will ultimately come from Sasaki himself. So don’t go photoshopping him into a Dodgers uniform just yet.

Why is Roki Sasaki so hyped?

There isn’t a starting pitcher in the world who throws as hard as Sasaki, and that’s just part of his appeal.

Sasaki is a pitcher who can not only touch, but also sit above 100 when fully healthy. United States baseball fans could see it when he showed up for the 2023 World Baseball Classic and threw 26 of 29 pitches faster than 100 mph.

That’s one elite field for Sasaki. The other is one of the dirtiest splitters in the world. Those are the two pitches Sasaki used in the game where many American fans first heard his name: a perfect 19-strikeout game in 2022.

Sasaki has also worked on his slider this year with encouraging results, and any MLB team that signs him will likely want him to continue working on developing additional offers.

Despite his elite international qualities, Sasaki is likely to need some time to develop into a top player, so many highlights are promising. Yamamoto was a much more polished pitcher when he was drafted, and Sasaki had issues with arm issues this year, causing him to miss a few starts and slowing down in velocity. His 2.35 ERA in 2024 was a career worst.

But make no mistake. A huge domino just fell in the MLB season, and there will be another one once Sasaki makes his choice.