The largest playoff field in National Women’s Soccer League history is about to get underway, and all four quarterfinals feature clear favorites.

For better or for worse, the playoffs have been expanded from six to eight teams, meaning the top two seeds no longer get a bye to the semifinals like in years past. It also means there are three teams under .500 in the postseason, which isn’t ideal.

The gap from fourth to fifth place was 16 points, showing just how superior the top four teams – Orlando Pride, Washington Spirit, NJ/NY Gotham FC and Kansas City Current – ​​were this season.

However, regular season records are just history. All eight teams must win three games to lift the NWSL Championship trophy. Why will each win? And what could be the downfall of each team?

Seed: No. 1
Next game: vs. No. 8 Chicago Red Stars, Friday 8pm ET, Prime Video

Why they will win: Orlando was the best team during the regular season thanks to every player performing at or near career highs, and that doesn’t change overnight. Don’t be fooled by a few losses in the aftermath of winning the shield, resting some players, and escaping a hurricane. This is also the best defense in the league, and that will pay off

Why they don’t do that: Barbra Banda has gone cold. Orlando is much more than a one-player show, but if the Pride want to cap off a historic Shield with an NWSL championship, they need their record striker to lead the scoring. Banda has been sensational but the defense has adapted and she has scored just one goal in ten games since the Olympics.

Seed: No. 2
Next game: vs. No. 7 Bay FC, Sunday, 12:30 p.m. ET, ABC

Why they will win: Washington is perhaps the best team in transition, with a squad that can apply relentless pressure and strike when given the slightest opportunity. The Spirit did just that in Saturday’s regular season finale, claiming the No. 2 seed. Ashley Hatch has found her form in the striker role, and Trinity Rodman is a game-changer from all corners of the world. The Spirit doesn’t have to control a game too much to win.

Why they don’t do that: It’s been a long season for every team, but the Spirit have been particularly beaten up, recently missing half of the starting lineup at one point due to injuries (and then losing Andi Sullivan last month to a torn cruciate ligament). Several players, including Rodman, are back on the field, but will the Spirit have the comparative legs to string the results together, especially if extra time is needed? The question could be asked of any playoff team, but the Spirit’s injury report is longer than it has been lately.

Seed: No. 3
Next game: vs. No. 6 Portland Thorns, Sunday 3pm ET, ABC

Why they will win: A strong identity. The defending champions have gone deep and can maintain a consistent game plan no matter which players are on the field. That sense of identity paid off in last year’s playoffs, when Gotham had a strong defensive performance away from home, and this team is even more comfortable in “organized chaos” this season. Big names like Esther González continue to perform, but so do lesser-known players like Ella Stevens and Delanie Sheehan. Good teams win, and this is as good a team from top to bottom as any. Gotham heads into the playoffs in great shape after finding its winning form (four consecutive regular season games) and, finally, its collective scoring boots.

Why they don’t do that: While Washington has struggled with injuries, Gotham has played and traveled more than any team this season. Sunday’s quarterfinal will be the team’s 40th match of the season, including a preseason tournament in Colombia, and they’ve had some wild cross-country runs of late that fit in with a midweek trip to Jamaica for the new Concacaf W Champions Cup, plus a trip to the White House.

Seed: No. 4
Next game: vs. No. 5 North Carolina Courage, Saturday, noon ET, CBS/Paramount+

Why they will win: They are in top form and their defence, which has been their Achilles heel, has improved significantly since the start of the season. Kansas City’s midfield is arguably the best in the league and the team has scored a record 57 goals this season. Have you heard of Temwa Chawinga? She will undoubtedly win the MVP award, scoring in eight of the nine league games she has played since the Olympics, missing the season finale with an injury.

Why they don’t do that: The bracket. They only narrowly defeated North Carolina, their quarterfinal opponent, and if they advance, a semifinal with Orlando looms. This year, Kansas City lost at home to Orlando despite being a player and a goal, then played a scoreless chess match in Orlando in September. The Pride appear to have Kansas City’s number. This team also struggled a lot with defensive set pieces early in the season, and while that has improved, the play-offs will require excellence in this area.

Seed: No. 5
Next game: on #4 Kansas City Current, Saturdays at noon ET, CBS/Paramount+

Why they will win: North Carolina is the best possession-based team in the NWSL, allowing the Courage to dictate games. It starts at the back, with a defensive unit calling the shots, and progresses to midfield, where Denise O’Sullivan and Narumi Miura patrol behind Ashley Sanchez. The Courage will see a lot of ball and that can give confidence. Will there be a final product in front of the target? The health of last year’s MVP, Kerolin, is the X-factor in all of this.

Why they don’t do that: Road problems. North Carolina’s road record this year is abysmal: 10 losses in 13 road games. This is a very different team on the road than at home, and the CPKC Stadium is probably the toughest place to play in the league, with a raucous sellout crowd on top of the pitch. North Carolina’s path to a title would almost certainly have to take place entirely outdoors.

Seed: No. 6
Next game: at No. 3 NJ/NY Gotham, Sunday 3pm ET, ABC

Why they will win: “Sophia Smith” is basically the short answer to this question, assuming she’s ready to play 90 minutes. The Thorns have struggled for a long time this season, but talent has never been an issue. Their front six can match almost anyone in the league, and Smith can change games on his own. Sam Coffey is a general in midfield, Morgan Weaver is back on the pitch and Christine Sinclair plays with the fire of a legend

Why they don’t do that: Will Jekyll or Hyde show up? No team’s performance has been more erratic over long stretches of the season than Portland’s. The Thorns were winless in their first four games before a coaching change, then won six in a row. They went seven games without a win during the Olympic break before finally getting on track recently. They have failed to deliver consistently coherent performances and have too often lacked a creative identity. If any of these traits creep back in, Gotham will strike in the quarterfinals.

Seed: No. 7
Next game: on No. 2 Washington Spirit, Sunday, 12:30 p.m. ET, ABC

Why they will win: Forgive the cliché of momentum, but this is a team that discovered its identity at just the right time. A midsummer makeover to focus on defence, aided by the arrival of centre-back Abby Dahlkemper, righted the ship for Bay. This team finally has the defensive support to back up a strong offensive cast. This might be the lower seed that no one wants to play. It’s not inconceivable that Bay steals an ugly result in Washington, DC

Why they don’t do that: There are still flaws in this squad, and while there are several veterans, this expansion team still has a learning curve in adapting to the NWSL. A recent 5-1 upset by Gotham was a reminder not only of the gulf between the teams, but of how quickly things can unravel when one team allows it. As much as this could be a dark horse for the playoffs, the reality is still that they will have to play a near-perfect game to beat a Spirit team that collectively set a new NWSL record for wins this season (18).

Seed: No. 8
Next game: at #1 Orlando Pride, Friday 8pm ET, Prime Video

Why they will win: The task against Orlando is enormous, but the Red Stars have pulled off upsets before, including a shock victory in the 2021 semifinals in Portland. If the Red Stars want to win – in what could potentially be the biggest playoff upset in the league’s history – they will need moments of brilliance from Mallory Swanson. Ludmila’s absence due to suspension puts much more pressure on Swanson at the top. The Red Stars also have goalkeeper Alyssa Naeher, who previously answered the call for heroics.

Why they don’t do that: The Red Stars haven’t been very good lately. While they found success early this year with more grit and less possession, that approach has resulted in less organized performances lately, with their only points from the past five games coming from a win over last-place Houston. ‘Tis the season for resilient defensive performances from teams that get results, but that description fit Chicago more in the first half of the season than the Red Stars of late, who have looked more like a team their opponents have created.