A disturbance in the Caribbean Sea is likely to become a tropical depression later this week and then intensify into the 18th storm of the season, Sara.

Latest status: The disturbance that will drive this tropical development is in the central Caribbean Sea. Once it reaches the western Caribbean, it will likely become a tropical depression somewhere in the red shaded area of ​​the map late this week, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Possible future power, track: Once a real storm forms, we will have a much better idea of ​​what will happen next.

However, computer model forecast guidance indicates that this system will likely become Tropical Storm Sara and could eventually develop into a hurricane. Relatively low wind shear and warm waters in the Caribbean favor this possible intensification.

It’s too early to provide other specific details about the forecast next week, but interests in the western Caribbean and even Florida should keep a close eye on the forecast. Check back to Weather.com and The Weather Channel app for updates across the tropics.

Typical tropical activity in November

Hurricane season ends in November, but that doesn’t mean we won’t see storms. This November has already produced Rafael.

In the satellite era – since 1966 – November has averaged one storm every one to two years and a hurricane every two to three years.

More often, parts of the Caribbean and Central America are hit hard by hurricanes in November.

If a storm develops in November, it usually occurs in the western Caribbean Sea or in the southwestern or central Atlantic Ocean.

This is because environmental factors are more suitable for development. Wind shear is normally quite low, cold fronts usually haven’t moved that far south and water temperatures are still quite warm. All of these factors can help support storm formation.

J​ennifer Gray is a weather and climate writer for Weather.com. Over the past two decades, she has covered some of the world’s biggest weather and climate stories.