Last weekend, a very small forest fire broke out in a hilly and dense area of ​​Prospect Park, a green belt in Brooklyn. The 5-acre blaze attracted about 100 firefighters, while residents were warned to stay out of the park. Meanwhile, on the New York-New Jersey border, another blaze, the Jennings Creek wildfire, has burned thousands of acres, sending smoke billowing through much of New York City and killing an 18-year-old New York State ranger volunteer was killed. while responding to the fire.

Is this typical? Not exactly. But the Northeast has been experiencing severe drought for weeks. These fires, and the dozens of others currently burning in the Northeast and across the Ohio River Valley, as well as dozens more across the western U.S., are the result of months of unusually hot and dry weather across much of the country.

Okay, pause: What is a drought? Simply put, a drought is a dry period – that is, a long period without rain or snow – that leads to a water shortage. Droughts can (and do) occur all over the world; they are not just a feature of a desert or regional problem. Extreme drought can put pressure on landscapes and groundwater levels, regardless of whether a city is built on top of it. If a drought lasts long enough, people in that location could lose access to water.

Although the western United States is associated with drought, it is remarkable to see this magnitude of drought spreading across the Northeast. And current forecasts show conditions will last for weeks or even months.

“It is problematic to see the drought in all parts of the country. It’s not just a regional problem,” said Brian Fuchs, a climatologist at the National Drought Mitigation Center. “No matter where you are, drought can and will affect you.”

Firefighters extinguished the fire in Prospect Park. Rain mercifully moved into New York Sunday night and extinguished much of the smoke drifting along the East Coast, obscuring the fact that a cluster of fires continued to burn in New Jersey.

While the smoke clears, the focus shouldn’t: Millions of people in the Northeast remain under red flag wildfire warnings, which signal conditions in which anything that could generate a spark could likely lead to a fire. But we’re all now living with drought, extreme heat and fire – and our relationship with water is tied to how bad things can get.

Why is the drought so serious?

For much of the country, October was an extremely hot and dry month. We’re on track for 2024 to be the hottest year on record, a statement that World Meteorological Organization forecasters are making with confidence, even with more than a month to go.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, the extended periods of hot and dry conditions have left every state in the country facing drought conditions – an unprecedented statistic.

No single director is responsible for the extent of the current drought. Even as our global average temperatures rise thanks to climate change, our weather patterns will continue to change in the short term. Despite Hurricane Helene bringing massive amounts of moisture to places like North Carolina just over a month ago, even western North Carolina is now abnormally dry. How is that possible? Because it’s been so hot and dry these past few weeks – enough to wipe out any sign of a so-called millennial event.

“When I started looking at the data from the last six months, you saw that in places like New Jersey, the Ohio River Valley and many of the Plains, precipitation is 12 to 18 inches below normal for this time of year ,” Fuchs said. “New York has a 10-inch deficit. That is very extreme for this part of the country.”

And then there are warmer temperatures later in the year that ultimately amplify the worst effects of the ongoing drought. Temperatures usually drop significantly in November. Trees drop their leaves and go dormant. Certain creatures go into hibernation or go into energy saving mode. Snow begins to accumulate in higher elevations, storing moisture that will – gradually – melt away during warmer periods.

But when it’s 80 degrees in New York in November, trees and vegetation still use water. There is an additional period of demand on the entire water system, which puts a strain on water resources – lakes and streams begin to recede and the soil retains less moisture. Vegetation that grew earlier in the year begins to dry out, causing forest fires.

“It really doesn’t take much time to transition to a hot and dry environment and suddenly you have all this extra fuel for wildfires,” Fuchs said. “This is the perfect mix for fires to flourish.”

Should we expect more forest fires?

Drought is a normal part of our climate, but it is not normal to see so much drought across much of the country.

This extreme period of dry weather is part of the bigger picture that scientists now expect: that our weather will become more extreme and unpredictable and that we will collectively experience more pronounced swings from incredibly dry periods to incredibly wet periods.

Those dry spells, Fuchs says, are related to warmer temperatures persisting into what should be the colder parts of the year, increasing demand on our water systems.

By the way, that question also includes the water consumption of you, me and everyone else. Just multiply our daily showers, drawing from the tap, running our dishwashers and washing machines, washing our cars, watering our houseplants (and so on) by the millions of people who live in a watershed, the area that is one shares some water source. for a particular region.

If there is too much demand on an already stressed landscape, the risk of wildfires increases as water levels in streams and our water table drop.

To better deal with the conditions we see today and the climate we can expect in the future, we need to understand that no place is immune to drought, Fuchs said. “Even if you think you haven’t suffered from drought in the past, it is becoming increasingly important that people know where their water comes from and can conserve it as best as possible at any time,” he said.

“We are actively experiencing serious impacts from climate change,” said Aradhna Tripati, a UCLA climate scientist who helped write the latest national climate analysis. Climate change “is no longer a theoretical or a distant threat, an abstract one. It’s not something that will happen here in the future. It’s not something that only happens in places far away from where we live. All weather conditions are now affected.”

Yes – even in New York City.