MINNEAPOLIS— We’re almost halfway through November and few snowflakes have reached the ground in Minnesota, leaving many state residents wondering when to break out the shovel or snow blower.

Let’s first define what significant snowfall is. The National Weather Service Twin Cities’ threshold for issuing a winter storm watch or warning is 6 inches of snow within 48 hours. WCCO’s NEXT Weather team generally defines it the same way.

The average first 6 inches of snowfall in Minnesota is on January 8. The earliest ever recorded is October 20, which occurred in 2020, while the latest occurred on April 20, 1893.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration winter prospects predicts a colder and snowier than average season for Minnesota this winter. Cool ocean surface temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean – a pattern called La Niña – tend to bring this type of weather to the Upper Midwest during meteorological winter, which runs from December through February.

However, not all La Niña winters go this way. Here’s a look at the first significant snowfall in some La Niña years, similar to this one.

• 2022-2023: November 29
• 2017-2018: January 22
• 2011-2012: No storm greater than 6 inches
• 2008-2009: February 26
• 2005-2006: March 13
• 2000-2001: December 16
• 1995-1996: December 8

These figures show that there is not a strong correlation between La Niña and the time of the first major snowfall.

The state has seen a few snowfall on Halloween this year, but nothing significant. Less than a quarter inch was recorded in the Twin Cities.

A system arriving early next week has the potential to bring snow showers, although current models, with a lot of uncertainty, show well under 6 inches in the metro.