Although the College Football Playoff race comes into focus with three weeks left in the regular season, there is still plenty of time for chaos to turn everything upside down.

Just look at last year. Texas and Alabama were No. 7 and No. 8 at this point in the season, and both made the four-team Playoff. A lot can happen, especially if the bracket is expanded to 12.

And even if you think your team is a piece of cake, college football is unpredictable. So some chaotic scenarios could happen, no matter how far-fetched they seem today. According to my College Football Playoff projection model, only 16 teams have a better than 20 percent chance of making the bracket. But it simulates the season 100,000 times, which means I can dig through every iteration and find some particularly wild results that put a lot more teams in the picture, since 27 teams have at least a 1 percent chance of making it.

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Let’s take a look at five of the most chaotic scenarios and wildest scenarios that are still technically plausible even though they are highly unlikely.

Indiana is No. 2 and the Big 12 is left out

In this version of the 2024 season, Indiana tops the rankings, including a win at Ohio State, and finishes as the No. 2 seed after winning its first Big Ten title since 1967. That moves previously undefeated Oregon to the No. 5 seed. and Ohio State to the No. 8 seed. The Buckeyes may host a first-round game in Columbus, but that would be quite a fall for a team with aspirations of winning the Big Ten and taking the No. 1 seed.

To round out the rest of the first-round byes, Clemson wins to take the ACC title and Boise State wins to become the fourth-highest ranked conference champion from the Mountain West. You might assume the Big 12 champion would be in this spot, or at least the fifth highest ranked champion, but not so fast! Four-loss TCU, which is technically still alive and kicking in the Big 12 title race, comes out of nowhere to make a run to win the conference in this simulation, meaning the Big 12 gets left out of the Playoff altogether held. Tulane wins the AAC to become the fifth conference champion and No. 12 seed.

The last interesting part here is that Notre Dame loses to USC, but Alabama and Georgia also drop a game to finish the season 9-3. My algorithm keeps the 10-2 Fighting Irish ahead despite one of their losses coming to Northern Illinois, though it’s possible the committee would punish them more severely for that loss.

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Colorado is creeping in and the bubble debate is getting loud

This iteration isn’t as spicy at the top, with Ohio State and Texas winning, but SMU and Boise State taking the other two byes in the first round. The other interesting part here is that Colorado wins the Big 12 and enters the College Football Playoff as the fifth-highest conference champion, giving it the No. 12 seed with a road trip to Oregon. BYU’s quest for an undefeated season is spurned by the Buffs, but remains in the Playoff as the No. 8 seed – and is rewarded with a home game against Georgia.

Alabama bounces back into the SEC title game but falls to Texas, resulting in the No. 7 seed and a matchup with 11-1 Indiana. This scenario would create a heated bubble debate, with Penn State losing to Minnesota and finishing 10-2, but withdrawing from the Playoff to travel to Notre Dame as the No. 11 seed. This gives it the last spot above 10-2 Tennessee and 10-2 Miami.

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Surprise byes create a dream first round

Ole Miss keeps the momentum going after its 18-point win over Georgia to advance and win the SEC by coming to Atlanta via a lengthy tiebreaker process. Boise State takes the No. 3 seed after Iowa State bounces back from two straight losses to win the Big 12, its first conference title since 1912. Oregon beats Texas for the No. 5 seed, but instead of hosting a Group of 5 team , it will be 10-3 ACC champion Clemson.

And while this is a highly unlikely iteration of the simulation, the first-round matchups are incredible. Clemson travels to Oregon, Tennessee to Texas, Georgia to Penn State and Indiana to Alabama, with Notre Dame (10-2), Miami (11-2) and BYU (11-2) the first three teams eliminated. The nice thing about the chaos of conference championships is that it can create some highly anticipated first-round matchups at campus locations.

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The Big 12 is getting a team… but not the champion

Boise State loses a game later but still manages to win the Mountain West championship, opening the door for Army to receive the No. 4 seed and earn a first-round bye as AAC champions. Remember, the traditional Army-Navy game doesn’t factor into the College Football Playoff equation, so Army would still have its annual rivalry showdown between Selection Sunday and a New Year’s quarterfinal.

Penn State loses again to Minnesota in this scenario, but still gets the nod after USC upsets Notre Dame. Notre Dame and Alabama are the first teams at 10-2 and 9-3, respectively.

Did you notice something was missing? It’s essentially the Big 12 champion: In this scenario, BYU goes 12-0 in the regular season but loses to West Virginia in the Big 12 title game. West Virginia doesn’t have the resume to make the field, while BYU only falls to sixth place. Boise State gets the No. 12 seed as the fifth-highest ranked champion.

If you haven’t noticed, the Big 12 has a real chance of not getting its champion into the Playoff if chaos ensues in the championship race.

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What if LSU wins the SEC?

Hello, Boise State. The Broncos win and a bunch of other chaos — including an Oregon regular-season loss to Washington — allows them to jump to second place. And while you might think nothing is more shocking than that, Texas is the highest-ranked SEC team at No. 5 with an 11-2 record. Yep, that’s right: No SEC team gets a first-round bye in this iteration as LSU makes a three-loss run (with some help) and upsets Texas in the SEC title game.

LSU would probably move up in the rankings if it were to win an improbable SEC title, but I have to go with what the algorithm spit out: the No. 12 seed and a rematch with Texas in Austin! Either way, the drama that would unfold over the next month would be incredible, with LSU knocking Alabama out of the Playoff picture on conference championship weekend.

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(Top photos of Kurtis Rourke and Kalani Sitake: Michael Reaves and Chris Gardner / Getty Images)