Believe it or not, Michael Chandler would probably still be waiting for Conor McGregor if Charles Oliveira didn’t appeal.

Chandler (23-8) will return after a two-year layoff on Saturday when he faces Oliveira (34-10) in the co-main event of UFC 309 at Madison Square Garden. The time off was essentially self-imposed, as Chandler spent the past 24 months promoting and preparing for a lucrative fight against McGregor that never materialized – a decision that left him open to, in his words, a tough ‘public shaming’ online. .

And yet, Chandler was still open to the idea of ​​waiting until 2025 — until the UFC offered him the opportunity to fight Oliveira, who defeated him in 2021, and earn a lightweight title.

“If the UFC hadn’t offered me Oliveira in a No. 1 fight, it would have been a tough decision,” Chandler told ESPN, echoing McGregor. “But once they offered me that, it was an easy decision. I want the Conor fight, I’ve been waiting for the Conor fight, I deserve and have earned the Conor fight, but at some point you think, ‘ Well, Oliveira is.” a great option. ”

Chandler’s willingness to wait for McGregor is embedded in his belief that the 36-year-old superstar shall eventually fighting again. McGregor has not fought since breaking his leg in a TKO loss to Dustin Poirier in 2021. He was scheduled to face Chandler at UFC 303 in June but withdrew due to an injured foot. McGregor has consistently stated that he will fight again, but the MMA community is starting to doubt him.

To get an idea of ​​what Chandler may or may not be moving forward with, ESPN asked the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas to put a hypothetical betting line on McGregor’s return to the Octagon in 2025. Director of Race and Sports John Murray set a 3-1 line in return for McGregor will fight again someday.

“I strongly believe there is no point for him to fight again,” Murray told ESPN. “He has so much money and other income streams coming in. He is a family man. The last time he fought he was seriously injured. Next year he will be 37 years old. Why would he put himself through another training camp? He will never being able to win another title. What would he fight for?’

Chandler, who coached against McGregor on ‘The Ultimate Fighter’ in 2023, admits he’s biased but still believes McGregor isn’t done yet.

“I think it’s more than 50% that he fights again,” Chandler said. “Maybe I’m just different, but at the end of the day if I say I’m retired, I’ll never come back. Conor has never done that. He’s always teased coming back. I don’t think he wants his legacy to be like that is that he broke his leg, got everyone excited about a return and then retired against Michael Chandler. I don’t think he wants that to be the end of him.

If Chandler is proven right – and McGregor fights in 2025 – it means Chandler may be taking a big risk by fighting Oliveira on Saturday. If he loses for the fourth time in his past five fights, the landscape of a potential McGregor fight could change, and not only would he have waited two years for nothing, he could end up waiting two years to get the McGregor fight to see it disappear. someone else when he finally returns.

“One hundred percent I jeopardized that fight and almost increased the chance of it never happening by taking this,” Chandler said. “I’ve given up now, only to see it come back later. And that’s fine. I’m betting on myself.”

Chandler and Las Vegas agree on that point, though he believes he will beat Oliveira and face McGregor in the first quarter of next year before moving on to a title shot. ESPN asked the Westgate Superbook to determine the odds for McGregor’s most likely opponent when he returns in 2025, and Chandler came in as the seventh most likely option.

McGregor’s most likely opponent when he returns in 2025

Jorge Masvidal, +225

Outside of McGregor, Masvidal is one of the biggest stars the sport has produced in the past decade. The 39-year-old Masvidal retired in 2023 after a four-fight skid but has since announced he is planning a UFC comeback. Masvidal fights at 170 pounds, the most likely weight class McGregor would return to. This would be one of the most lucrative options for McGregor’s return.

Charles Oliveira, +250

McGregor heavily targeted Oliveira online when he held the lightweight championship from 2021 to 2022. Oliveira’s stock soared during his championship reign, and McGregor previously expressed interest in fighting in Brazil, Oliveira’s home country. “Conor doesn’t want to fight Oliveira,” Chandler suggested. “A fight between me and Conor is much more intriguing for him than a fight against Oliveira.”

Max Holloway, +350

McGregor is coming off a win over Holloway from 2013, when they were each moving up the featherweight ranks. Holloway has become a household name in the UFC and still holds on to the BMF title despite falling short of a featherweight title shot against Ilia Topuria last month. McGregor would have a size advantage over Holloway, and who knows how much a BMF belt could appeal to him at this stage.

Nate Diaz, +800

A trilogy meeting between McGregor and Diaz always felt inevitable until Diaz left the UFC two years ago. He could always come back – he’s never signed an MMA deal with another company – but it feels more like a gamble than a certainty at this point. “I’ve always seen Nate as the No. 1 option for Conor because of their history, but does the UFC still want to do business with Nate?” Chandler said. “They’re not here now.”

Dan Hooker and Justin Gaethje, +1400

Two nice names that have been associated with McGregor in the past, but never in a really serious way.

Michael Chandler, +1800

This shows just how far Chandler’s chances of a McGregor fight have fallen in the eyes of the Westgate Superbook after the two-year layoff. The implied probability of a +1800 payout is just over 5%.

Dustin Poirier and Ilia Topuria, +3000

McGregor’s two losses to Poirier in 2021 never sat well with him, but with Poirier looking at retirement, it feels like this rivalry is over for good. Topuria is an interesting name because he is one of the biggest rising stars in the sport. The UFC would have a lot to gain by giving Topuria the exposure that would come with a McGregor fight. That said, there is no momentum in this direction so far.