Week 11 ends in Dallas as the Houston Texans take on the Dallas Cowboys on “Monday Night Football.” Both teams are eager to get back in the win column, with the Texans having lost their past two games and the Cowboys their past four. The game starts at 8:15 PM ET on ABC/ESPN.

After losing Dak Prescott to injury, the Cowboys will start Cooper Rush at quarterback again and hope that last week’s 45 passing yards was just a bad game and not a sign of things to come. The Texans have also had significant injuries this season, especially at wide receiver, but Nico Collins is back and ready to return to a major role on offense.

The Texans come in as road touchdown favorites in a game with just 41.5 expected total points.

Odds current as of publication time, courtesy of ESPN BET

Game lines

Spread: Texans (-7)
Money line: Texans (-380), Cowboys (+290)
Top/Bottom: 41.5

Distribution over the first half: Texans (-4.5)
Texans total points: 24.5 (above -105/below -125)
Cowboys total points: 16.5 (over -110/under -120)

The props

Pass

CJ Stroud total passing yards: 249.5 (above +115/below -145)
Stroud total passing TDs: 1.5 (more than +100/less than -130)
Cooper Rush’s total passing yards: 174.5 (over -130/under +100)
Rush total passing TDs: 0.5 (more than -165/less than +130)

Rush

Joe Mixon total rushing yards: 89.5 (above -105/below -125)
Rico Dowdle total rushing yards: 49.5 (over -145/under +115)

Received

CeeDee Lamb total receiving yards: 59.5 (above -125/below -105)
Nico Collins total receiving yards: 69.5 (over -140/under +110)
Tank Dell total receiving yards: 49.5 (over -110/under -120)
Jake Ferguson total receiving yards: 34.5 (over -130/under +100)
Dalton Schultz total receiving yards: 29.5 (above -115/below -115)
Rico Dowdle total receiving yards: 19.5 (over -135/under +105)
Joe Mixon total receiving yards: 14.5 (over -135/under +105)

Eric Moody’s picks for the game:

Nico Collins over 69.5 receiving yards (-140): CJ Stroud and the Texans are happy to have Collins back after sitting out five games due to a hamstring injury. Before the injury, Collins managed to cross this line in every match and had 10 or more goals in three of his five appearances. Stroud also benefited from Collins’ presence, ranking third in passing yards during those games. Against a Cowboys defense that is giving up the seventh-most yards per game, Collins is in prime position to come back strong.

Dalton Schultz over 29.5 receiving yards (-110): Schultz has surpassed that mark in just four games this season, but there is reason for optimism. Since Stefon Diggs’ season-ending injury in late October, Schultz has been more involved in the Texans’ offense. With Collins back, Schultz should have more opportunities in the middle of the field, especially against an injury-riddled Cowboys secondary. And let’s not forget the revenge factor: Schultz must be motivated to get results against his former team.

Dallas Cowboys under 16.5 total points (-120): The Cowboys defense has struggled against the run, allowing the ninth-most rushing yards per game to running backs and ranking 30th in run-stop winning percentage, which should benefit the Texans as they Joe Mixon leaning to check time of possession. Dallas’ offense scored just six points against the Eagles in Week 10, with Rush passing for 45 yards. With Philadelphia’s secondary struggling for most of the season, this was telling. Meanwhile, the Texans’ defense is getting healthier, which could make it a tough night for the Cowboys, especially on offense with CeeDee Lamb dealing with shoulder and back injuries.

Betting Trends

Courtesy of ESPN Research

• Unders are 8-2 in Texans games this season, the highest under percentage in the NFL. Unders are 8-1 in the past nine matches with four straight unders.

• The Texans are 9-1 ATS in the first half this season, the best mark in the NFL.

• The Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their past four games, their longest ATS losing streak since 2020 (eight in a row). They are 1-7 ATS in their past eight games.

• This is the sixth straight game in which the Cowboys are the underdogs, their longest streak since 2015 (seven in a row). This would be the first time since 1989 that the Cowboys have been at least 7-point underdogs in consecutive home games.

• The Texans are 5-10 ATS as the favorite under DeMeco Ryans. They are 8-20-1 ATS as a favorite since 2019. The Texans haven’t closed as favorites by at least 7 points since 2020 (-7.5 vs. Bengals).

• The Cowboys can fall short of their season win total (10.5) with a loss.

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